Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
735
FNUS72 KILM 201206
FWSILM
Spot Forecast for CABE Rx - Visitor Center Unit...North Carolina state parks
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
806 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 EDT on May 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative...or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast...contact the National Weather
Service in Wilmington at 910-762-1374.
.DISCUSSION...
High pressure will prevail early this week bringing drier air to
the region. Warmer temperatures will return mid week with wetter
weather expected late week.
Wind profile analysis/fire control over flat terrain is Favorable.
Fog potential for tonight is Moderate.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 74.
Min humidity........70 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 11 to 13 mph.
Max mixing hgt......2600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 20 to 21 mph.
Max vent rate.......Fair (54396 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........3.
Max ADI.............61.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (EDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........38 37 36 34 33 32 32
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............69 70 71 72 72 72 72
RH..............73 71 70 70 71 71 72
20 FT wind dir..NE NE NE NE NE NE NE
20 FT wind spd..13 13 13 13 12 12 11
20 FT wind gust.18 18 18 18 17 17 15
Mix hgt (kft)...2.4 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.2 2.5 2.2
Transp wind dir.NE NE NE NE NE E E
Transp wind spd.21 21 21 21 21 20 20
Stability.......C C C C C C C
LVORI...........3 3 1 3 3 3 3
ADI.............59 61 61 59 55 57 51
Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Vrate mph-ft/1K.51 54 54 52 46 50 43
Ventrate Cat....FR FR FR FR FR FR FR
Sfc pres (in)...998 998 998 998 998 998 996
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (50-60 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 61.
Max humidity........90 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
Min mixing hgt......900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 12 to 18 mph.
Min vent rate.......Poor (12659 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........5.
Min ADI.............8.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........30 28 27 28 30 31 38 45 53 53 53 54
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............71 70 69 68 67 67 67 66 65 65 65 64
RH..............74 75 77 80 82 83 83 84 85 87 87 89
20 FT wind dir..NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE
20 FT wind spd..10 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 5
20 FT wind gust.14 14 14 13 12 12 11 10 9 9 9 9
Mix hgt (kft)...2.2 2.0 1.8 0.9 0.9 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.1 1.1 1.1
Transp wind dir.E E E E E E E NE E NE NE NE
Transp wind spd.18 18 18 18 17 17 17 16 15 13 12 13
Stability.......C E E E E E E E E E E E
LVORI...........3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5
ADI.............49 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 8 8 8
Haines index....3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3
Vrate mph-ft/1K.41 38 32 16 16 29 28 25 22 14 13 14
Ventrate Cat....FR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
Sfc pres (in)...996 996 999 999 999 000 000 000 000 000 000 001
.TUESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 75.
Min humidity........73 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 6 to 8 mph shifting to the east
7 to 8 mph late in the afternoon.
Max mixing hgt......1700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 13 to 15 mph shifting to the east
around 14 mph late in the afternoon.
Max vent rate.......Poor (25941 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........5.
Max ADI.............33.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........54 55 41 23 9 7
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............64 65 68 71 72 73
RH..............90 88 81 76 73 73
20 ft wind......N 6 N 6 NE 7 NE 8 E 8 E 8
20 ft wind gust.9 10 12 12 12 12
Mix hgt (ft)....1100 1600 1700 1600 1500 1300
Transport wind..N 13 N 14 NE 15 NE 15 E 14 E 14
Stability.......E B B B B B
LVORI...........5 4 3 3 3 3
ADI.............8 29 32 31 27 24
Haines index....3 4 4 4 4 4
Vrate mph-ft/1K.14 22 25 24 21 18
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
Sfc pres (in)...30.01 30.04 30.04 30.06 30.05 30.05
$$
Forecaster...Morgan
Requested by...Jesse Anderson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414706.0/ILM
.DELDT 05/20/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Jesse.anderson@ncparks.gov