686
FXUS61 KILN 011047
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
647 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure will track through the region overnight into
Sunday. Rain showers will embedded thunderstorms will accompany
this system. High pressure will briefly return later Sunday
into Monday offering dry weather. An unsettled pattern is
expected from Tuesday through the end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A narrow mid level ridge to slide east of the area today as a
shortwave and weak surface wave approaches from the west.
Expect high level clouds thru the morning with mid level clouds
this afternoon. With a dry airmass in place have preferred a
slower onset of rain showers showers. Have chanced pops across
the far west/southwest late in the day. Due to a lack of
instability - expected initially mainly showers.

High temperatures to range from the mid/upper 70s west to the
lower 80s east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Mid level shortwave and weak surface low to track thru the
region overnight into Sunday. Axis of rain showers to pivot thru
the area overnight. Instability is marginal so thunder threat is
limited and mainly across the south. Rainfall is expected to be
between a quarter and a half inch.

Mild temperatures with forecast lows in the upper 50s to the
lower 60s.

Showers will be ongoing early Sunday as weakening shortwave
continues to push off to the east. Main area of precipitation
will diminish from west to east but can not rule out re-
development of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm with lingering
boundary in the afternoon. High temperatures to range from the
lower 70s to the middle 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper ridge will strengthen slightly through Monday and then be
undercut by shortwave energy entering from the west. Rain, possibly
thunderstorms will begin Tuesday and become more prolific later in
the day as the ridge breaks down and more s/w energy crosses the
CWA. Showers and thunderstorms continue to remain a possibility
overnight with an uptick expected to occur before daybreak Wednesday
as another s/w passes east over the CWA.

Models show large differences in the pattern evolution beyond this
time, but do concur on afternoon storms decreasing/ending overnight
from w-e. Expect that they will end before midnight for an
essentially dry overnight, however NBM was much more bullish on this
decrease and persisted activity, ramping it back up during the day
Thursday as a cutoff upper low settles over the northern Great Lakes
region. Activity is being shown to cut off overnight, likely due to
dry air wrapping around the low. Another ramp up in pops on Friday
with the low tracking closer towards northern Ohio and cold pool
overturning expected. The proximity of the low keeps at least chance
pops in through the remainder of the forecast.

Temps Sun night/Mon will be above normal with lows near 60 and highs
in the lower 80s, increasing to be 5-8 degrees above climo overnight
Mon and Tuesday with lows near 65 and highs from the low 80s in the
west to upper 80s in the east. This rising trend in temps only
lingers through Tuesday night when lows are solidly 10 deg above
normal in the upper 60s. Cloud cover and expected precip knock down
temperatures from Wednesday onward, ending with Friday highs in the
mid 70s and lows in the upper 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue thru the day today as high
pressure continues to slide off to the east. High level clouds
move across the region this morning, with mid level clouds
building in this afternoon.

As a mid level shortwave and low pressure approach the area
the lower levels will saturate, with showers spreading across
the area late in the day into this evening. MVFR CIGs to develop
in rain showers with IFR conditions developing toward sunrise
Sunday.

South to southeast winds increase to around 10 kts today.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible through Sunday, and
again on Tuesday through Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...AR