716
FXUS63 KILX 261933
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
233 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of stronger storms are possible this evening for
  areas near and south of I-72. Discrete cells with the threat of
  large hail and isolated tornadoes are initially forecast before
  becoming a QLCS, with hail and damaging winds as the hazards.

- Localized heavy rain and flooding for areas near and south of
  I-70 as storms, bringing high precipitation amounts, pass
  through this evening.

- The weather calms down after tonight, providing us a benign week
  of weather. The next chance (30-40%) of showers and
  thunderstorms arrives Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

The next round of storms is possible this evening, mainly near and
south of I-72. There is some uncertainty whether this round will
make far enough north to be in the CWA or not but the newest HRRR
and ARW show it just south of I-72. These are likely to be supercell
structured with a large hail and tornado risk early in the event
(21z-00z). Then will merge into a more linear form as it exits
southeastern Illinois, posing more of a hail and damaging wind risk.
The HRRR 12z soundings show STP of 1, SHIP of 2.1, midlevel lapse
rates of ~8 C/km, and PWATs of 1.5-1.9 inches for this evening. We
kept the Flood Watch for south of I-70 because of the higher PWATs,
and the potential for training cells.

After this evening, the weather will clear out. Memorial Day will be
nice and dry with highs in the low to mid 70s. There could be some
breezy winds at times, particularly late in the day. From the 12z
HREF, there is a 50-60% chance of wind gusts greater than 30 mph
in the late afternoon into the evening hours, then calming down by
the overnight hours.

Temperatures through the extended forecast will gradually warm up by
next weekend. Low to mid 70s for highs through Thursday, then
reaching the upper 70s to low 80s. The next significant chance for
precipitation comes Friday night into Saturday, with 30-40% chance
of showers and thunderstorms.

Copple

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

VFR conditions are expected through mid afternoon. A few strong
storms are possible late in the afternoon into the evening, but
recent models suggest these stay well south of the I-72 corridor,
away from the terminals. A rogue storm could get close to SPI around
21z. Breezy southerly winds are expected today, turning to
northwesterly by late in the period as a front moves through
overnight. Periods of MVFR ceilings are possible as the next round
brings some lower cloud deck in from the south-southwest.

Copple

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Monday for ILZ066>068-071>073.

&&

$$