138
FXUS64 KJAN 200922
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
422 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 422 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Today and Tonight: Quiet start to the morning as a surface ridge
continues to influence our weather. Patchy fog development will be
possible near the Pine Belt and northeastern portions of the area
during the early morning hours and dissipate after sunrise. The
ridge is expected to amplify throughout the day, bringing
seasonably very warm temperatures (upper 80s/lower 90s), sunny
skies, and dry conditions to the region. Quiet conditions remain
into the evening with low temperatures expected to be in the
upper 60s/lower 70s. Due to clear skies and light winds, patchy
fog will be possible once again in the Pine Belt early Tuesday
morning. /SW/

Tuesday through Sunday: The long term forecast continues to be be
best described as hotter than normal with increasing chances for
storms. Anticyclonic flow associated with a subtropical ridge
extending from Mexico into the Southern Plains will have the most
influence on our weather, and with H850 temperatures approaching
20 deg C in the global models, a few locations should reach the
mid 90s at some point. While the boundary layer RH is not expected
to be particularly impressive through the work week, it does
appear that humidity will increase by the weekend, and we will
need to monitor for impactful heat stress during that time.

As we go into mid/late week, active westerlies over the Plains/MS
Valley will likely suppress the ridge some and allow a cold front
to approach our area. This will increase thunderstorm chances
Wednesday night for northwest/northern portions of the forecast
area, where increased increased moisture convergence and mid
level flow could help to organize potential storms. As of now,
there is a marginal risk for a few severe storms in the upper
ArkLaMiss region, but it is likely that the anticyclone will
delay storm impacts for most of the area until at least a day or
two later, so will continue to hold off on messaging severe
weather in the graphics until confidence increases. Going into
Thursday and Friday, the frontal boundary will linger and promote
additional chances for storms over mainly northern potions of the
area. Otherwise, expect the heat and humidity to potentially
build more as described earlier. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

VFR flight conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Patchy
fog will be possible early this morning near GTR, HBG, and PIB and
this may result in brief visibility reduction. Winds will be light
and variable. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       88  67  90  68 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      89  65  89  66 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     90  68  90  70 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   91  67  90  67 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       89  67  89  69 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    91  71  92  72 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     90  70  91  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SW/EC/SW