Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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765 FXUS64 KJAN 010320 AAB AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 1020 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 932 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Departing shortwave trough axis aloft has carried best rain chances east of the I-55 corridor late this evening, and convection managed to use up almost all of the instability left across the forecast area. Light to occasionally moderate rainfall will continue into early tomorrow morning. Some of the guidance do show the possibility for some warm advection showers to re- develop around 3-5 a.m. This could be due to an increase in warm, moist advection in the lower levels overnight, but it`s uncertain at this time whether there will be the needed shortwave impulse to provide lift. Additionally, drier air should be working in some from the west overnight in the wake of earlier rainfall. Will carry the mention of thunderstorms overnight, but have discontinued advertising Marginal Risk outlook for severe storms through the remainder of the night. Took the opportunity to updated POPs and weather timing into the afternoon and evening tomorrow, as this latest system will take some time to recover from a perspective of diurnal thunderstorm activity. /NF/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Tonight through Saturday: Periods of showers and storms will continue through Saturday. A few storms could be strong to severe with damaging winds and hail being the main threats. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out but it seems as if that threat is diminishing and the damaging wind threat and locally heavy rainfall will be the main issues with these waves of showers and storms. We still maintain a marginal to slight risk of severe weather over portions of the forecast area through tonight. Saturday night through Thursday: Active weather including the potential for severe weather and flash flooding will be possible over most of the period. By Saturday evening the shortwave trough axis will be east of Mississippi taking the most vigorous convection with it. Our region will still have west to northwest flow aloft and there is at least a couple models hinting at an MCS moving back into our southwest during the evening. This would bring a threat of damaging wind gusts and perhaps some hail. Locally heavy rain would also likely accompany the system. During the period Friday night through Sunday morning there will be the potential for two to four inches of rain in a short amount of time. This would result in localized flash flooding. Sunday wl still have a warm moist airmass in place. Daytime heating looks to combine with another subtle shortwave to enhance convection over the region leading to scattered to numerous coverage going into Sunday evening. This convection is expected to have a distinct diurnal trend to it and will wain with the loss of daytime heating. We will still have a warm moist airmass over our region come Monday. Monday yet another shortwave trough is expected to move across the region during the heat of the day and lead to at least scattered coverage of mainly afternoon and early evening storms. Tuesday convection is expected to be less and more confined to our northern zones as mid level ridging looks to strengthen some over the southern portions of our CWA. There remain difference in the models with Wednesday into Thursday but consensus suggests a northern stream disturbance will be strong enough to help send a cold front into our region that would lead to a greater coverage of convection over our CWA Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. /22/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 706 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 An area of rain with embedded thunderstorms is affecting most TAF sites to start the period with at least some -RA. As the better chances for showers and storms continue to shift east through the period, increasing chances for low stratus and patchy BR will build in behind the departing rain. MVFR to IFR conditions appear likely after 06Z for most of the sites, and some sites could even see ceilings into the LIFR range before 15Z Saturday. Lifting and mixing stratus deck between 15Z to 18Z should eventually result in prevailing VFR conditions toward the end of the period. /NF/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 68 84 69 84 / 80 70 30 50 Meridian 68 82 67 84 / 90 90 30 60 Vicksburg 68 85 70 87 / 70 40 20 50 Hattiesburg 70 85 70 87 / 70 90 40 60 Natchez 67 85 69 87 / 30 50 30 50 Greenville 69 85 70 85 / 90 30 20 40 Greenwood 67 84 70 85 / 100 60 30 40 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ MJH/22/NF