Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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095 FXUS62 KJAX 280004 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 804 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 208 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Stagnant pattern over the last few day has started to break down with the mean low layer high shifting off to the southeast while the upper ridge flattens and an upstream trough carves its way into the Deep South. Strengthening southwesterly (offshore) flow has pinned the Atlantic sea breeze to the immediate coast this afternoon. With the breezy offshore winds holding off the sea breeze, hot conditions have ensued this afternoon as temps soar to the low to mid 90s all the way to the coast, with heat index into the upper 90s to near 100 once again. Significant subsidence capping in the low levels will inhibit storm chances through most of the day until a prefrontal trough enters SE GA early this evening from the northwest. While the latest RAOB verifies the strong low-level cap, there is also very steep lapse rates aloft which will foster a surplus of elevated instability (MLCAPE of 2,000+ j/kg) through tonight. These competing factors, along with weakening dynamic, have kept confidence in storm coverage on the low side. That said, isolated strong to marginally severe storms cannot be ruled out, with primary threats being hail and downburst/outflow winds, mainly north US-82 in SE GA. Through the overnight hours the weakening frontal zone will push into NE FL and may trigger widely scattered showers along it but with the loss of considerable dynamics the thunderstorms are likely to be isolated at best until after daybreak Tuesday. Layers of clouds and light southwesterly winds will deter fog development and keep lows in the low 70s in land and mid/upper 70s along the ocean/river front. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 208 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 Scattered showers and storms forming ahead of the advancing frontal boundary will gradually push out of the forecast area and diminish by Tuesday evening with drier and more stable conditions building in on Wednesday as high pressure following the frontal passage settles across the forecast area. Strong to severe storms are not anticipated for Tuesday with convective developments expected to be more inhibited on Wednesday due to the influence of high pressure, however scattered to isolated formations cannot be ruled out at this time. High temperatures through midweek will rise into the lower to mid 90s with overnight low temperatures dropping down into the mid to upper 60s over inland areas and in the lower 70s for coastal areas and along the St Johns River. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 208 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 Chances for convection will increase by the end of the week and into the weekend as prevailing flow shifts to become more out of the north and northeast as high pressure to the north moves eastward and brings in a more moist onshore flow for the forecast area. Daily high temperatures will drop below the seasonal average through the end of the week with overnight low temperatures remaining at near normal levels. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 759 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 No major changes made to the prevailing TAF forecast package with increasing multi-layered cloudiness through the night and rain chances increasing first near SSI through 04z, then chances expanding southward across the NE FL terminals through the rest of the night and into Tue morning. SSE winds at the coastal terminals will back SSW to WSW through midnight, with prevailing WSW flow at inland terminals. Potential restrictions will exist in convection overnight tonight, otherwise prevailing VFR. Winds begin to shift WNW after 12z at SSI with drier conditions, then the WNW shift and drier conditions filter southward across NE FL terminals into Tuesday afternoon 18-00z. If there is enough break in cloud cover at the NE FL coast Tuesday afternoon, a weak east coast sea breeze will likely develop. && .MARINE... Issued at 208 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 A weak cool front will slide into the waters from the north Tuesday morning with showers and isolated storms developing ahead of it overnight tonight. That front will stall south of the waters Tuesday night and remain there through Thursday as high pressure builds to the north. Onshore flow will increase toward the end of the week as high pressure builds northeast and another front pushes across the water this upcoming weekend. Strengthening flow should result in rising seas offshore by Sunday. Rip currents: Low risk is expected Tuesday with low-end Moderate risk possible with sea breeze development Wednesday afternoon. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 208 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 Moderate river flooding is forecast end of the week on the Santa Fe at Three Rivers Estates, just touching the moderate category. The Satilla River basin remains in Minor Flood stage at Atkinson (but coming down) and portions of the Suwannee are expected near Minor Flood stage this week. Minor flooding will be possible towards mid to late for the lower Santa Fe River near the gauge at Hildreth. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 72 92 66 91 / 50 10 0 0 SSI 74 91 71 90 / 40 30 0 0 JAX 74 94 69 93 / 30 40 0 0 SGJ 74 94 71 91 / 20 40 10 0 GNV 72 93 67 94 / 20 40 0 10 OCF 73 92 69 96 / 20 50 0 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$