684
FXUS63 KJKL 262257
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
657 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a potential for severe thunderstorms tonight, with
  damaging winds isolated tornadoes being the main threats.

- Locally heavy rainfall could lead to isolated flash flooding
  tonight.

- Generally cooler and less humid weather will arrive over the
  next several days. Warmer and somewhat more humid weather is
  forecast to make a comeback next weekend, with our next area
  wide chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 629 PM EDT SUN MAY 26 2024

Our daytime round of convection is departing to the southeast,
with mainly stratiform rain and a bit of rumbling remaining in
southeast KY. However, more active wx is on the way. A strong
surface low is passing northeast over the upper Midwest, with a
cold front stretching south southwestward. Aloft, flow is brisk
with a shortwave trough approaching from the west. Although
substantive heating is finished for the day, advection of mild,
moist air northward ahead of the front will provide instability.
ML CAPE is expected to be in the 1500-2000 J/KG range late
tonight. Another MCS is expected to travel southeast through the
region late tonight and tap into the instability. The system
will emanate from the storms currently underway over MO. A linear
system is expected by the time the storms get here, which will
present wind as a primary threat. However, very favorable shear
(directional and speed) is shown in forecast soundings, and this
would also present an increased risk of embedded QLCS tornadoes.
With a Flood Watch already in place until Monday morning, wet
ground from today`s rain, and more thunderstorms on the way, will
leave it in place. However, if tonight`s storms are progressive (as
it looks like they may be) the threat will be somewhat lessened.

The system will be exiting southeast early Monday morning, taking
our severe wx threat with it. A meaningful change in surface air
mass will be gradual, and a few more showers or thunderstorms
can`t be ruled out during the day. However, instability will be
weaker and air aloft will be extremely dry. Significant convection
is not expected to regenerate. Any precip should be gone by late
Monday evening, with fair wx overnight as drier low level air
continues to make its way in.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 657 PM EDT SUN MAY 26 2024

Upper level longwave troughing will dominate the eastern CONUS
through most of the upcoming week, providing cooler and less humid
weather. Multiple shortwave trough will rotate through the larger
trough during this time. As one of these passes by, there is a
potential for a few showers/thunderstorms to POP up as far
southwest as the JKL forecast area on Wednesday afternoon, but
the POP remains low.

The main upper level trough is expected to shift eastward during
the weekend, and transient ridging should pass over us from west
to east while surface high pressure also departs to the east. A
return of southerly winds, warming temperatures aloft, and at
least partial sun on Saturday will bring a warm-up. By Sunday a
shortwave trough impinges on the departing ridge and could find
enough moisture returned to the area to bring showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 7 AM EDT SUN MAY 26 2024

Main concern during the TAF window is a few periods of thunderstorms,
potentially strong with gusty winds, this afternoon and evening...
then again overnight. High resolution guidance is zeroing in on a
two-hour period as a complex of storms arrives from the west.
After this period of stormy weather, another line may impact our
terminals, with this producing a temporary westerly shift in wind
direction with some gusts. Have decided to leave this short window
out of the TAFs for now due to time and area uncertainty.

A stronger line of storms will likely impact the terminals late
tonight after midnight. This is currently represented in the TAFs
with VCTS. Will focus the time frame down with future updates.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Monday morning for KYZ079-083-084.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...HOGUE