Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
086 FXUS62 KKEY 290250 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1050 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1050 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 It`s another quiet and muggy night across the Florida Keys. Surface analysis hasn`t changed too much this evening with a stationary front along the north Gulf coast extending up the New England coastline and a surface Atlantic high just nosing over the Bahamas. The placement of these features has resulted in light and variable winds across our CWA. KBYX radar is currently free of any meteorological echoes in and around the Keys. Skies are mostly clear with the highest density of coverage over the Upper Keys due to cloud debris from old South Florida seabreeze convection. Current temperatures along the island chain are in the mid 80s with dew points in the mid to upper 70s. While light and variable breezes are forecast to persist into tomorrow, there could be a bit of action along the island chain overnight. Our 00z balloon sounding saw yet another increase in PW to 1.54 inches with the moistening of much of the lower levels of the thermodynamic profile. While a capping inversion sits around 930 mb, any lingering boundaries pivoting in from yesterday`s convection over mainland Florida could provide the lift needed to spark some showers in our area. Recent CAMs runs support this with convection sparking along the island chain sometime between 08 to 10z and persisting until after sunrise tomorrow. However, not all solutions agree on this outcome and showers have had a history of struggling once they entered our area earlier this evening. Opted to keep slight chance PoPs tonight and into tomorrow. No changes in the forecast are required at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 1050 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories currently in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, light to gentle, generally variable breezes are expected through Thursday. High pressure currently over south- central Canada will emerge off the Mid-Atlantic coast by the end of the work week. This will result in fresh northeast to east breezes beginning as early as Friday night, lasting through early next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1050 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail at both EYW and MTH through midnight. Recent CAM runs suggest a line of showers will develop along the island chain in vicinity of the island chain after midnight tonight around 08 to 10z lasting until after sunrise. This is still very uncertain as not all CAM runs agree on this solution or location, thus no mention is in either TAF at this time. Near surface winds will be light and variable throughout the TAF period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 82 91 81 91 / 20 10 10 10 Marathon 82 91 82 91 / 20 10 20 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...JAM Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest