483
FXUS63 KLBF 261058
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
558 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon into
  this evening, but looking dry for Memorial Day.

- Potential for active weather with more widespread
  thunderstorms arrives by midweek.

- Trend toward warmer temperatures with readings above normal
  into the latter portion of the workweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

A look at the radar early this morning shows the region to be
precipitation free. However satellite imagery and surface
observations indicate a bloom of low clouds and fog underway
across much of north central Nebraska. Expect the low clouds/fog
will continue to expand southward to around Hwy 2 through
daybreak, then gradually dissipate through Sunday morning after
daybreak.

By early this afternoon, an upper trof with a vigorous short
wave will be pushing through the region and trigger another
round of scattered showers and thunderstorms as it encounters a
frontal boundary draped across central Nebraska. Convective
parameters are not overly robust with CAPE values generally
below 1000J/kg and looking to be of the long/skinny variety on
Bufkit. 0-6km bulk shear is generally at or below 30kt but 0-1km
bulk shear is 10kt or less and hodographs are not looking
particularly long or loopy. Perhaps the most notable parameter
is low level lapse rates around 10C with an inverted-v sounding
profile. Given this set-up, expect scattered thunderstorms to
develop across northwest Nebraska and spread east/southeastward
across the region before exiting off to the east early this
evening. Severe potential appears low though with the steep
lapse rates anticipate some storms will produce gusty outflows
and will monitor the mesoscale conditions closely for landspout
potential.

As the upper trof axis moves to our east, ridging aloft will
help high pressure displace the frontal boundary as it builds
down form the north Sunday night into Monday. There is a small
hint for an isolated shower developing in a lingering ribbon of
minimal instability late Monday afternoon, but this guidance is
an outlier in the distinct minority so anticipate dry conditions
across central and western Nebraska for Memorial Day.

Highs today and Monday will range from the lower 70s north to
upper 70s south of I-80. Lows will be in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Ensemble guidance is in good agreement in sharpening the upper
ridge over the Rockies before a trof moves out of the PacNW
later in the week. At the surface, high pressure will build over
the Great Lakes and the eastern half of the country. With the
surface high to our east, southerly flow will establish efficient
moisture transport into the Plains with a ribbon of precipitable
water values into the 90th percentile running up from Texas
through the Dakotas and continuing northward into Canada by
later Wednesday through Thursday. This moisture will be very
effective in giving our instability a significant boost and set
the stage for rounds of thunderstorms Wednesday onward with
potential for locally heavy rainfall and an as yet undefined
severe threat worth keeping an eye on, especially Thursday as a
cold front moves into the region. This front may wash out and
linger over the area and continue our chances for showers and
thunderstorms through the end of the week and into next weekend.
Temperatures will generally be above normal throughout next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 550 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Areas of fog/stratus has developed and brought IFR/LIFR
conditions to portions of northern and central Nebraska. At
this time it appears KVTN will remain on the edge of the worst
conditions, with MVFR visibilities continuing through mid-
morning. Thereafter, VFR conditions are expected to return and
continue throughout the remainder of the period for all sites.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
this afternoon into the evening. However, confidence on
specific impacts to KLBF or KVTN remains rather low at this
time, thus will cover with a VCTS for a brief period this
evening. Future amendments or inclusions may be needed should
confidence increase with subsequent forecasts.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...Viken