Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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419 FXUS64 KLCH 031144 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 644 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday night) Issued at 417 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Unsettled is the key message of the forecast package this morning with POPs continuing to become more prevalent in our very subtropical moist environment. The recent trend with this pattern has been remnant boundaries from storm complexes across central TX and LA modifying over SETX and SWLA and utilizing relatively large instability and high PWAT values to facilitate redevelopment across the CWA daily. Short range guidance has been fickle in being able to target genesis and evolution of scattered to widespread showers/storms. Basis the latest guidance now, this trend of relatively unorganized storm complexes will continue into the early work week. What hasn`t changed, are the signals for light ridging from the western Atlantic to build further into the central GOM briefly by mid week. However, given a consistent southerly flow and active pattern across the midwest, the potential for storm complexes to redevelopment even during the mid week is non-zero. Any patchy fog that has developed overnight will quickly mix out to hazy, mostly cloudy skies with highs building into the upper 80`s for most inland locations. Upper level shortwave trough over the central plains will pivot near the Ozarks before lifting across the Ohio Valley into Tuesday. Currently, forecast remains that the stronger dynamics which favor severe weather will be limited in this region and remain further north closer to the more active region of the upper level pattern. Signals have grown stronger for troughing to develop closer into the ARKLATEX region ahead that pattern. Therefore, similar to the past couple days, another round of scattered storms have become more favorable to develop into the afternoon. This thinking aligns closely with SPC guidance of a marginal and slight risk encompassing the northern ~ 1/3rd of the CWA combined with a marginal risk of excessive rainfall. While much of the upper level shortwave continues to feed downstream toward the TN Valley, small perturbations in the flow aloft yield a weakly positive tilted shortwave across the region into Tuesday evening over SETX / SWLA. Much of the global guidance and National Blend of Models does not pick up well on the precipitation potential, however, there are no significant limiting factors in the forecast atmospheric profile that would confidently prevent redevelopment of clustered storms trending SE from Central TX. That said, considering the upper level dynamics, the most favorable regions would lie east of SETX into Acadiana / Atchafalaya. Moving forward into Wednesday, the ridge extension mentioned earlier appears strongest throughout the day which indicate that enough subsidence will be in place to limit any POPs. However, unlike a large synoptic high pressure cell, this weak ridging will be short lived before receding back east over the FL Peninsula. Kowalski/30 && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 417 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Looking into the long range, confidence in the forecast pattern does not get any stronger with a very active northern jet across S`rn Canada and the Midwest while the subtropical jet across Mexico and the Gulf becomes more chaotic, albeit with weaker Jet Maxes. A large and deep surface low will stall out north the Great Lakes with troughing deepening south into Ohio Valley region for the remainder of the forecast outlook. Meanwhile the subtropical pattern also shifts further south toward the northern Caribbean while en elongated stationary boundary left over from the aforementioned northern stream shortwave meanders toward the ARKLATEX region. There has been a few run to run consistency in this boundary sinking south across Central LA and E`rn Tx into Saturday which would serve as a focal region for shower and thunderstorm development into the upcoming weekend for the CWA. Kowalski/30 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 630 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Conditions have mostly been VFR since the passage of a convective complex overnight, although some patchy low clouds were producing intermittent MVFR conditions at BPT and ARA. Expect VFR to prevail through the day today, with SCT-BKN cloud bases lifting to around 3500-4000 FT. Scattered SHRA/TSRA are again expected to form, due to daytime heating and instability interacting with lingering boundaries across the area as well as another potential convective complex moving southeast into the region later today. CAM guidance has struggled in handling convective initiation and evolution so overall confidence regarding coverage and timing is low. Outside of any storms, winds will be SE-S, strengthening to around 15 KT, with occasional gusts to 20-25 KT during the afternoon. MVFR cigs are expected to develop by late this evening into overnight. 24 && .MARINE... Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Onshore flow is expected to begin gradually increasing tonight, with caution conditions forecasted by Monday night as the gradient tightens thanks to lower pressures over the srn Plains. These elevated winds are progged to linger into mid-week before settling. 25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 89 73 91 74 / 50 20 20 0 LCH 87 76 89 78 / 30 10 10 0 LFT 89 78 91 78 / 30 10 20 0 BPT 89 77 90 78 / 40 10 10 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...24