730
FXUS64 KLCH 191610
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1110 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...

Wx map shows 1016 mb surface high pressure ridge across MO/AR/LA
this morning, with light east or variable winds 5 mph or less
across the area. Visible satellite imagery shows scattered cumulus
across our region. Afternoon temperatures expected to reach the
upper 80s to lower 90s, with maximum heat index values in the mid
to upper 90s. Ongoing forecast on track with no updates needed at
this time.

08/DML

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Early morning sfc analysis shows the area now under the influence of
high pressure centered near the Ozarks and ridging swd. Water vapor
imagery indicates the region now on the back side of an ern CONUS
trof with a  dry nwrly flow in place aloft. Combo of these features
has resulted in a clear night over the forecast area. With good
radiating conditions in place, patchy fog has begun developing...as
of press time, no stations are reporting dense fog. Regional 88Ds
are PPINE.

In the near term, will continue to monitor sfc obs and traffic
cams for any potential need for a Dense Fog Advisory...latest fog
guidance shows a smattering of small areas where dense potential
exists, but not widespread enough to warrant an advisory on their
own merits.

Otherwise, still looking at dry conditions through the short term
as mid/upper-level ridging builds over the region from nrn
Mexico. With another good radiating night expected tonight, fog is
likely to form...dense potential is certainly there, but will
allow later shifts to better refine this threat.

Although afternoon temperatures are progged to remain fairly
static, the warm muggies will return by early in the new work week
as the sfc high slides ewd, allowing a return flow off the Gulf
to re-develop, driving up dewpoints by several degrees by
Tuesday. Accordingly, overnight lows will rebound to area-wide
readings in the 70s by Tuesday morning.

25

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

By Wednesday high pressure will be along the Carolina coast while
aloft a ridge will be centered over the western gulf near NE Mexico.
This will provide the local region with a humid onshore flow while
suppressing chances for rainfall and keeping temperatures higher
than climo norms for the date. Farther north a cold front will be
across the plains and slowly moving southbound.

The upper ridge will sink south and east into Thursday as a short
wave moves across the upper midwest. The aforementioned cold front
may drift into North TX and Arkansas before stalling. With the front
relatively near the vicinity, and the upper ridge weakening locally,
a few showers and storms may be possible in the lakes region and
across Cen LA, although not explicitly mentioned in the forecast.
The chances overall appear low at this time, just not 0.

Friday and into the weekend the upper ridge may nudge back into the
area suppressing already low rain chances. Temperatures will
continue to run above climo norms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)

VFR expected this afternoon and evening, with variable winds 5 kts
at AEX, southeast at 6-8 kts at southern terminals. Fog potential
a little less overnight, with most terminals possibly having
intermittent MVFR visibilities between 09-13z Monday. Otherwise,
southeast winds around 7-10 kts at all sites after 14z.

08/DML

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

No headlines are anticipated in the CWF until close to mid-week
when the gradient tightens as lower pressures develop over the srn
Plains and winds begin to strengthen in response.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  90  66  90  67 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  90  71  89  72 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  91  72  91  72 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  91  71  89  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...08