845
FXUS66 KLOX 281024
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
324 AM PDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...28/225 AM.

The marine layer pattern will continue through at least next
weekend. Skies will be mostly clear save for night through morning
low clouds and fog across the coasts and valleys. Temperatures
will be a few degrees below normal through through the weekend
across the coasts and valleys. Breezy northwest to onshore winds
will continue to be strongest each afternoon and evening for far
interior areas and southwest Santa Barbara County.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...28/300 AM.

Three days of very similar uneventful weather is on tap for Srn
CA. At the upper levels there will be weak troffing with hgts near
583 dam. At the sfc there will be moderate (AM) to strong (PM)
onshore flow from the W to E. In the S to N direction, however,
there will only be weak flow.

This pattern will bring a very typical May Grey pattern with night
through morning low clouds fog reaching across the coasts and over
most of the vlys. Clearing will be slower than usual and a few
west facing beaches may see very slow or no clearing.

The strong W to E gradient will produce gusty winds in the
afternoons and early evenings across the interior exp across the
western Antelope Vly and foothills where advisory level gusts are
likely Wednesday afternoon.

There will also be sundowner winds each evening and overnight as
strong NW winds move into the waters off the Central Coast and
then into and through the Santa Ynez range. Look for isolated
advisory level gusts this evening and strong and more wide spread
gusts Wednesday night. The Wednesday night gusts will likely
reach advisory levels across the western portions of the SBA south
coast with gusts between 40-50 mph range.

Max temps will warm each day esp inland. Despite the warming the
csts/vlys will remain below normal with max temps in the mid 60s
to mid 70s. The interior (shielded from the sea breeze) will rise
to well above normal with max temps reaching into the lower 90s
across the Antelope Vly.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...28/324 AM.

May Grey will seamlessly transition into June Gloom in the
extended period. The weak troffing and strong onshore flow will
continue through the period. The night through morning low clouds
will continue unabated. As in the short term a few west facing
beaches will likely not clear. Max temps will continue their
bifurcated nature with the inland areas running a few degrees
above normal, while the csts and vlys will continue to come in a
few degrees below normal each day.

&&

.AVIATION...28/0630Z.

At 0520Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1400 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was at 3300 feet with a temperature of 18 C.

High confidence in desert TAFs.

Moderate confidence in the remainder of the TAFs. Timing of flight
cat changes could be off by as much as 2 hours and cig hgts could
be off by as much as 300 ft.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. VFR conds could arrive as early
as 19Z or as late as 23Z. Good confidence that there will be no
significant east wind component.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Low clouds could arrive as
early as 09Z. There is a 25 percent chance of 2SM BR conds
11Z-15Z.

&&

.MARINE...27/825 PM.

Moderate to high confidence in forecast.

Across the outer waters, wind and seas are at Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) levels. SCA conditions are expected to persist much
of the time through Thursday night, except for the outer waters
south of the Channel Islands - where conditions are likely to drop
below SCA level late tonight and tomorrow morning. Winds will be
strongest Tuesday and Wednesay afternoons/nights. There is a
20-30% chance of gales Tuesday and a 50-60% chance of gales
Wednesday, thus a Gale Watch has been issued for all the outer
waters Wednesday afternoon and night. Choppy steep seas will peak
Wednesday morning into Thursday morning at around 10 to 13 feet,
and SCA seas may linger as late as Thursday night.

Across the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, SCA winds
have ended this evening. Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
night, SCA level winds and seas are likely (60-80%), with a 15-25%
chance of Gale Force winds Wednesday afternoon/evening. SCA seas
may linger as late as Thursday night.

Across the southern inner waters, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA
winds Tuesday afternoon and evening. On Wednesday, there is a
60-80% chance of SCA winds across the western portion of the
Channel, with a 20-30% chance of Gale Force winds. South of the
Channel Islands, conditions are expected to remain below SCA level
until Wednesday afternoon. At that time there is a 30% chance of
SCA wind and/or seas.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9
      PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PDT Wednesday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon
      for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT
      Thursday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT
      Thursday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Lund/Schoenfeld/Smith
SYNOPSIS...30

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox