Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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199 FXUS64 KMAF 231111 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 611 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday afternoon) Issued at 228 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Quieter weather the next two days as temperatures rebound to the upper 90s/low 100s with zonal flow aloft and clearing skies. Very dry westerly flow will once again usher in critically low humidity this afternoon, possibly as low as 2 percent, which will combine with gusty winds to create critical fire weather conditions across the west. A Red Flag Warning is in effect...more information can be found in the Fire Weather Discussion below. The downsloping west winds should also push temperatures as high as 110+ along the Rio Grande and 95+ in the higher terrain across the south, so a Heat Advisory is in effect for these areas. On Friday, models continue to try to push a cold front down into Texas on the heels of an upper level trough moving from the Dakotas up into Canada. If the front does manage to get here Friday morning, similar to Wednesday, it will stall out likely somewhere in the Permian Basin, and quickly mix out in the afternoon as strong warm westerly flow wins out. With the uncertainty of the front for Friday, have let NBM ride for afternoon highs, which look to be mainly in the mid to upper 90s, 100s along the Rio Grande, and possible 80s/low 90s for the far northern portions of the CWA. With dry westerly flow persisting, precipitation chances are nil for the short term. -Zuber && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 228 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 A hot weekend will transition to cooler temperatures next week as we see a pattern change. Deep westerly flow will continue with slightly stronger downslope flow forecast for Saturday. Very dry air along with gusty winds will lead to critical fire weather conditions, especially in the higher terrain. In addition to the fire weather concerns, excessive heat will continue across the Big Bend and Lower Trans Pecos where more Heat Advisories are likely. Sunday will be similar although with less wind and a few degrees shaved off high temperatures. Bigger changes take place Monday as a strong shortwave moves across the Plains and drags a cold front through the area. Confidence is low regarding the front as some models have gone back and forth on timing. NBM has been consistent in bringing highs back down to normal behind the front. Return flow commences Tuesday helping to bring Gulf moisture back into the region. A dryline will set up against the higher terrain much of next week with periodic disturbances providing an opportunity for showers and thunderstorms. It`s too early to tell which days will be more active with regards to convection, but given we are in our peak severe weather season things could get busy once again. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 605 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Mainly VFR but there are a few low clouds building in at KMAF/KHOB lowering conditions to IFR, but should clear in the next few hours as westerly winds ramp up. Gusty west winds for much of the afternoon before dying out around sunset. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 228 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Fire weather concerns increase today given a combination of escalating factors. A very dry airmass will spread east today across our area with RH values below 5 percent by this afternoon. Little recovery is expected each night with these RH values reappearing each day through the weekend. Winds will remain generally under 15 mph for most locations except across the higher terrain which will be influenced by deeper mixing pushing winds to gust to near 40 mph at times. These stronger winds will lead to critical fire weather conditions both today and again Saturday in the stronger, wind-favored areas. Fuels continue to degrade across the west and ERC values will reach extreme levels (>97th percentile) this afternoon. Given these fuel conditions will exist into the weekend another Fire Weather Watch is likely for Saturday as weather conditions worsen. While dry air will spread across the entire area, recent rains and green- up will help prevent major concerns for fire starts further east. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 98 62 95 61 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 94 62 95 62 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 103 69 103 69 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 100 65 98 63 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 84 60 85 62 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 93 59 92 56 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 91 52 90 52 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 96 63 95 61 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 96 64 95 62 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 99 61 98 60 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Eastern Culberson County-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains- Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor. Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for Central Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin- Davis Mountains-Lower Brewster County-Terrell. NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains. && $$ SHORT TERM...88 LONG TERM....29 AVIATION...88