879
FXUS64 KMAF 021747
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1247 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday afternoon)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Zonal flow continues for the short term period. What that means for
today is dry air mixing east into the western Permian Basin and
Trans Pecos, creating a dryline off which isolated to scattered
convection will form this afternoon and evening. Any storms that
form will have a chance to become severe with strong winds and large
hail the main threats. Temperatures will be warmer than yesterday
though still near normal for this time of year.

Tomorrow westerly mid level flow continues to push the hot and dry
air out west into the Permian Basin and possibly all the way to the
western Low Rolling Plains. This sends temperatures well above
normal with highs in most locations exceeding 100 degrees. All
storms are expected to be east of the CWA though one or two could
develop in Scurry and Mitchell counties.

Hennig

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

The long term forecast finally makes a return to a quieter and more
benign weather pattern through the early to middle of next week. The
mid-level ridge and associated surface high pressure should slowly
shift back westward towards the southern Rocky Mountains Tuesday
into at least Thursday. This results in dry northwesterly flow in
the mid to upper-levels and generally weak southwesterly flow near
the surface. This means there is no rain during this part of the
forecast. Temperatures quickly become very hot once again with
widespread 100s overspreading most of the region and the hottest
temperatures expected along the Rio Grande and Pecos River Valleys.
This pattern should slowly change towards the end of the coming
week. An upper-low off the coast of Baja should slowly slide into
the southwestern CONUS. As this occurs, the threat of thunderstorms
makes their return to the western higher elevations. This will be
supported by the return of moist southwesterly mid to upper-level
flow and weak disturbances kicked out from the upper-low.
Additionally, a glancing blow from thunderstorms moving out of
eastern New Mexico into southeast New Mexico and the northern
Permian Basin can not be ruled out as this activity is pushed
southeast. Overall thunderstorm coverage should be isolated to
scattered but any rainfall will be beneficial for the parched
western regions. Temperatures remain hot despite the influence of
the upper-low though they should be a touch cooler as heights come
down slightly.

-Chehak

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

VFR conditions will continue the next 24 hours. Winds will be
elevated and at least intermittently gusty at all terminals this
afternoon, out of the S/SE at MAF/FST, and S/SW at CNM, HOB, INK,
and PEQ. A few thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, mainly
impacting MAF and FST, though low confidence precludes any mention
at this time. Thus, will monitor and amend as needed. Winds become
lighter overnight, and shift to the W/NW Monday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               72 103  70 104 /  20   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 65 102  69 102 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   75 102  71 106 /  10  10   0   0
Fort Stockton            70 104  69 104 /  10  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           65  94  67  92 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    64 100  63 101 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                    58  97  56  95 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     71 104  68 103 /  20   0   0   0
Odessa                   71 103  69 103 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                     68 105  66 106 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Central Brewster
     County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis
     Mountains Foothills-Lower Brewster County.

NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...84