722
ACUS11 KWNS 250246
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250246
MOZ000-ARZ000-250445-

Mesoscale Discussion 0946
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0946 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Areas affected...Southern Missouri and far northwest Arkansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 304...

Valid 250246Z - 250445Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 304
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms will continue along a cold front
across south-central Missouri and along the MO/AR border for the
next 1-2 hours. These storms may periodically intensify to severe
limits and pose a large hail/damaging wind threat.

DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms continue to develop along a cold
front as it migrates into south-central MO. Although the observed 00
UTC SGF sounding sampled an very supportive environment for severe
convection (MLCAPE nearly 3000 J/kg with a 0-6 km BWD value of 45
knots), convection has largely struggled to maintain intensity,
likely owing to a combination of diminishing forcing for ascent
along the front and the onset of nocturnal stabilization.  However,
a few stronger updraft pulses have been noted over the past 30
minutes and have intensified to severe limits based on MRMS vertical
ice and MESH estimates. Given weak ascent within an otherwise
favorable environment, the expectation through 04 UTC is for
continued development of weak convection with occasional stronger
updraft pulses that may intensify to severe limits. Unless a more
robust cell can develop some degree of mid-level rotation and/or a
sufficiently intense cold pool, storm longevity should be limited.
Consequently, the severe hail/wind threat should remain somewhat
isolated as storms move into south-central MO and along the MO/AR
border.

..Moore.. 05/25/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   36289441 37009320 37179266 37139211 37099164 36879156
            36719163 36559191 36359258 36169321 36089356 36099395
            36149419 36289441