156
ACUS11 KWNS 031757
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031756
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-032030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1150
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024

Areas affected...parts of southeastern Oklahoma...northeastern
Texas....west central and southwestern Arkansas....northwestern
Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 031756Z - 032030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The evolution of an ongoing eastward/southeastward moving
cluster of storms remains uncertain in the near term, but
thunderstorm development with increasing risk for severe hail and
wind is possible through 2-4 PM CDT.

DISCUSSION...An initial intensification of thunderstorm development
across the Muskogee OK vicinity appeared focused near an area of
enhanced lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection (around 700 mb), but
has become better sustained southward along strengthening convective
outflow into areas to the east of McAlester.  This activity is
embedded within modest (20-30) westerly deep-layer mean flow, but
downward mixing of northwesterly rear inflow is contributing to
southeastward propagation of the cold pool toward the Ark-La-Tex
vicinity, where stronger boundary-destabilization is currently
focused.

Northeast of De Queen AR into the Russellville AR vicinity the
environment is still in the process of recovering from prior
convection, while warming elevated mixed-layer air continues to
advect northeastward into/across the Red River Valley and Ark-La-Tex
vicinity.  So, subsequent evolution of convection remains uncertain.
 However, a corridor of continuing intensifying thunderstorm
development appears possible along the northeastern periphery of the
more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air into the peak heating
hours.  If this occurs, it would likely be accompanied by increasing
potential for strong to severe surface gusts in the presence of
moderate to strong shear (largely due to veering winds with height)
and strong convective instability.

Discrete storm development near/just ahead of the southeastward
advancing cold pool also appears possible, and would probably be
accompanied by a risk for large hail as well.

..Kerr/Smith.. 06/03/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   34139628 34439532 34809463 35379376 35059296 33219356
            32749489 33309609 34139628