Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
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618 FXUS66 KMFR 271112 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 412 AM PDT Mon May 27 2024 .DISCUSSION... The quiet weather pattern continues this morning with some lower stratus along the coast within Coos County and coastal areas in Douglas County. The weather feature for today will be the low(5-10%) chance of cloud to ground lightning in Lake County and a small section of Siskiyou County near Mt Eddy. This seems pretty optimistic given how weak the lifting mechanisms will be today. Although, one could analyze a stationary front right off the coast later this afternoon. We think the GFS and NAM are overdoing convection given that storms are triggering from hitting the convective temperature and also require deep mixing. Other than thunderstorms, it will be a warmer Spring day with highs pushing into the mid 80`s here in the Rogue Valley and temperatures trending about 10 degrees higher compared to yesterday. The same concerns persist into Tuesday as the upper level trough moves closer to the coast. The best chance for thunderstorms will be east of the Cascades, although most of the action will probably be outside of our forecast area. HREF probabilities are notably higher on Tuesday, although are east of Lake County. Temperatures trend lower, especially west of the Cascades with some stronger onshore flow. It`s also worth noting 700 mb flow is slightly stronger and wind gusts up to 30 mph east of the Cascades is a reasonable prediction given how deep mixing will be. Eventually, the upper level trough will progress through the forecast area on Tuesday night with a cold front following up the trough passage. There is a low chance for some showers in the Cascades and along the coast, but precipitation will be light and likely under 0.1 inches. Heading into Thursday and Friday, temperatures will gradually warm up as a weaker ridge builds over southern Oregon. The temperatures on Friday will be roughly 10 degrees warmer than the normals for this time of year in late May, although remain a limited heat risk to those sensitive to heat. Next weekend appears rather quiet with high pressure remaining in control and highs in the mid 80`s west of the Cascades. By next week Monday and Tuesday, things could become more interesting. The ensembles are showing a risk of a warm front and almost atmospheric type river event hitting the Pacific Northwest. IVTs are in the 90th percentile for this time of year 7 days out in the NAEFS, which is notable. Right now, the best probability of precipitation chances are to our north, although the NBM as a 25% chance for many areas in our forecast area observing 0.25 inches of rain over 24 hours ending at 4am on June 4th. -Smith && .AVIATION...27/06Z TAFs...VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period for most areas. Marine stratus will develop tonight along the Oregon coast, with MVFR ceilings expected to persist into Monday morning. This marine stratus is likely to seep into the Umpqua Basin late tonight, but may not quite reach Roseburg. Have gone with a scattered MVFR deck for Roseburg to reflect this thinking. The lower conditions are expected to clear to VFR by late Monday morning, with VFR prevailing into Monday evening. Expect the typical uptick in afternoon breezes Monday afternoon. /BR-y && .MARINE...Updated 200 AM Monday, May 27, 2024...Relatively calm conditions will continue through Tuesday. Expect some locally gusty north winds (15 to 20 kt) south of Cape Blanco within 20 nm from shore today. Otherwise, relatively light winds and seas are expected, and a weak upper trough will bring some slight (10-25%) chances for showers north of Cape Blanco on Tuesday. An upper ridge will build on Wednesday and remain in place through the rest of the week with a strong thermal trough developing. This will bring increasing north winds, with conditions hazardous to small craft likely for all areas by Thursday. Strong north winds may reach gales (50-90% chance) south of Cape Blanco, with the highest chance for locations south of Gold Beach. Gusty winds and steep to very steep and hazardous seas are likely through the end of the week. Conditions may improve over the weekend. /BR-y/Hermansen && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None. && $$