286
FXUS62 KMHX 302227
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
627 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Shortwave passing through tonight may bring a few showers.
Behind this wave, cooler and drier high pressure builds
overhead for the weekend. High pressure then builds offshore
early next week with temps returning to above normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 630 PM Thu...No significant changes needed to previous
forecast for early evening update. A potent shortwave and an
associated 100kt upper jet are forecast to round the base of upr
trough tonight. Modest low- mid level moistening beneath cool
temps aloft will support a period of weak instability timed out
with the passage of the shortwave and very weak SFC troughing.
This should support the development of scattered showers and
perhaps a storm or two that will move from NW to SE along a line
from Martin and Washington Co toward DownEast Carteret and the
OBX towards morning. No severe wx expected as instability will
be elevated in nature, though perhaps some pea size hail could
occur should any of the stronger updrafts reach their full
potential with the steep mid level lapse rates. MinTs in the mid
to upper 50s inland to 60s coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
As of 3 PM Thu...After a couple lingering AM showers and iso
storms, the day looks to be quite pleasant with low humidities
and highs 75-80. TD`s only in the 40s interior to low 50s coast,
and nne breeze will make it even feel a bit chilly in the
shade. Some diurnal strato cu may develop, esp ern zones, and
help keep temps down just a touch.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 330 AM Thurs...Cool high pressure will build into the area
Friday and into the weekend with below normal temperatures and
low humidity expected. Then, high pressure will slide offshore
early next week with a return to a summery pattern featuring
daily scattered afternoon thunderstorms and highs near normal.

Friday through Sunday...A few morning showers and thunderstorms
will be possible Friday as a reinforcing front moves offshore,
but then expect mostly dry conditions through the weekend.
Cooler high pressure will remain centered to the west this
weekend which will lead to below normal temperatures and low
humidity...a welcome sight here in early June. Highs will reach
the upper 70s to low 80s, while low temps dip to near record
lows Friday night (in the upper 40s to low 50s inland), and then
mid to upper 50s Saturday night.

Monday through Wednesday...High pressure will build offshore
early next week allowing for a return of summer-like warmth and
humidity. Increasing moisture will introduce a risk for isolated
to scattered thunderstorms each afternoon with the best chances
for rain (~30%) Wednesday as weak upper level impulses move
through a mostly zonal flow. Temps will return to near normal,
with highs reaching the upper 80s to near 90 each day, and lows
mostly in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 630 PM Thu...Pred VFR conditions expected through the
period. Showers and perhaps a storm or two are possible east of
the TAF sites late tonight to early Fri, so have not included
any shower mention at this time, but may have to watch for any
development further west than currently anticipated with later
forecasts. Some sct strato cu in the 5-6k ft range will impact
the taf sites through the period.

LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 330 AM Thurs...Mostly VFR conditions are expected through
the long term as high pressure remains in place across the
region. However, strong cooling each morning could result in the
formation of patchy fog which could bring periods of sub-VFR
visibilities to the terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Fri/...
As of 630 PM Thu...Latest obs show NE-SE winds 5-15 kt with seas
2-3 ft. Seas will continue around 2-3 ft, highest over outer
Central waters where 4ft possible. Shortwave traveling through
the trough aloft passes over the FA after midnight tonight
leading to chance of showers and a storm or two working from NW
to SE across the Pam/Pungo Rivers, Wern extent of the Pamlico
Sound, DownEast Carteret, and then across Cape Lookout around
sunrise Fri. Nerly winds on Fri in the 15 kt range with some
gusts in the lower 20s, but remaining below SCA levels with seas
of 2-4 ft.

LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 330 AM Thurs...Good boating conditions expected through
the weekend and into early next week with high pressure
overhead.

Winds will be N/NNE 10-15 kts Friday, and then subside slight to
5-10 kts Saturday. Return flow develops Sunday with winds
becoming SSW at 5-10 kts. Winds then become SW at 10-15 kts
Monday. Seas will be mostly 2-4 ft through the period.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...CQD/TL/SGK
MARINE...CQD/TL/SGK