052
FXUS62 KMHX 201431
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1031 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure ridging builds in from the north keeping much of
the area dry through mid week before the next potential frontal
system late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 1015 AM Monday...

Low-level clouds are quickly building back in thanks to diurnal
heating of a residually-moist low-level airmass, and steepening
low- level lapse rates. Temps initially warmed quicker than
forecast, but should slow some thanks to the clouds building
back in. I adjusted temps and clouds to better match all of the
above, but otherwise, the spirit of the forecast is unchanged.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...High pressure ridging extends S`wards to
our west and low pressure remains offshore to our east.
Continued NE`rly flow is resulting in low stratus to once again
overspread the eastern half of ENC, with some uncertainty on how
far west it by daybreak. There is another low cloud deck
currently west of hwy 17 in a region of modest decoupling, which
is likely allowing the lower levels to moisten and produce low
stratus. This layer of stratus should quickly burn off after
sunrise, but the stratus impacting OBX will linger on a bit
longer, breaking up later in the morning into the afternoon.

Lows get into the mid to upper 50s this morning. With the
moisture column very dry above 850 mb, 0% PoPs in place through
the near term. OBX will see NE`rly gusts of 25-30mph late this
morning into this afternoon with a tightened pressure gradient
before subsiding to near 20mph in the evening.

Widespread cloudcover will keep temps cooler than climo once
again as highs range from the low to mid 60s OBX to the mid 70s
inland where there are more breaks in the clouds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 400 AM Monday...Fog and low stratus threat tonight into
early Tuesday morning with ample low level moisture and
decoupling expected with ridging dominating. Introduced patchy
fog west of hwy 17 with this update, particularly after 2am
Tuesday. Potential exists for dense, impactful fog. Otherwise a
quiet short term, with lows in the mid 50s inland, near 60 for
OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330 PM Sun...High pressure builds in from the north for
the first half of the workweek. A cold front will approach from
the west toward the latter half of the week.

Tuesday through Thursday...High pressure builds across the Mid-
Atlantic and Southeast. Expect dry conditions through Thursday,
along with steadily warming conditions. Temps will start out in
the 75-80 degree range on Tue, then by Wed and Thu, rise
through the 80s and back above climo. In fact, some areas may
flirt with 90 degree highs by Thu. Lows will be in the 50s to
start the pd, then rise into the 60s by mid week.

Friday through Sunday...Next potential weather maker in the
form of a shortwave trough and approaching cold front may arrive
by week`s end, bringing threat for thundershowers to the region
with a warm/humid airmass in place by then. Lots of
disagreement this far out, so pops only in the 30`s% at best.
Followed closer to climo, and kept thunder mainly in the
afternoon to early evening time periods, with very small to nil
shower chances overnight and morning periods.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 12z Tuesday/...
As of 700 AM Monday...IFR stratus impacting terminals east of
hwy 17. This cloud cover will expand further south and west
through the morning, but is expected to remain away from PGV,
ISO, and OAJ. EWN continues to be hit or miss, with a sharp
gradient between VFR and IFR, and the cloud deck forecasted to
come to a halt in the vicinity of EWN. A slightly more elevated
MVFR deck is impacting far western portions of the CWA,
currently impacting PGV as it migrates further west and breaks
up. On and off MVFR conditions are possible for PGV, ISO, OAJ
through the morning, but chances remain fairly low as the main
cloud deck has moved further west. Afternoon remains VFR for TAF
terminals, with sub-VFR conditions still continuing for OBX. NE
winds gust to near 20mph inland, 25-30mph for OBX today. More
substantial fog threat possible Monday night into early Tuesday
morning, with the potential for IFR/LIFR visibilities mainly
along and west of hwy 17. In addition to fog, another round of
low stratus moves in Monday night/Tuesday morning from the NW
impacting areas mainly east of 17.

LONG TERM /Today through Friday/...
As of 4 AM Sat...Pred VFR conditions are expected early through
mid to late week.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 1015 AM Monday...

Coastal obs along the Outer Banks continue to show reduced
visibilities of around 5 miles. Webcams in the area suggest
visibilities may be even lower. I`ve adjusted the forecast to
reflect lower visibilities hanging around for longer into the
morning hours. A Marine Dense Fog Advisory was considered, but
based on recent obs and short-term guidance, it appears the fog
risk will be short-lived. We`ll continue to monitor trends in
case this risk were to worsen and/or last longer into the day.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Riding over central ENC and the coastal
plain is interacting with the low offshore, resulting in NE`rly
breezy conditions waters. Still, gusts are generally below 25
kts, resulting in the cancellation of small craft advisories for
Pamlico Sound and all coastal waters except for those off of
Hatteras Island and Ocracoke. These SCA`s linger due to the
potential for 6 ft seas in the vicinity of the gulf stream, set
to expire at midnight tonight. Winds could flare up this
afternoon as the gradient tightens briefly, but gusts will still
largely be below 25 kts, with a few infrequent gusts of 25 kts
not out of the question. The marginal nature of the gusts
prevents the extension or reissuance of a SCA for waters
currently without a hazard.


LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 4 AM Sun...SCA cond linger into Monday for Pamlico Sound
and the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet as gusty ne winds
keep seas elevated above 6 ft. Seas expected to drop below 6 ft
Mon night all waters as high pres begins to build in and long
fetch nerly winds diminish.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203-
     205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM/RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...TL/RJ
MARINE...RM/TL/RJ