233
FXUS62 KMLB 190617
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
217 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 217 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

A tricky precipitation forecast today with some uncertainty in
place. A first wave of diminishing showers looks to move
southward across the northern terminals with VCSH introduced at
LEE by 08Z, making it to MCO/ISM by 12Z. A second wave of
convection moves westward across the peninsula from mid morning
into the afternoon. Have included a mention of VCTS at MCO/ISM at
18Z while the current forecast keeps terminals to the north dry.
VCTS beginning around 17/18Z from TIX southward as storms approach
from the west. The highest confidence is at VRB/FPR where TSRA
TEMPOs are included from 18/21Z. Will reevaluate if TSRA TEMPOs
are needed at SUA/MLB in the 12Z package.

South winds early this morning veer southwest to west by late
morning, generally remaining 12 kts or less. An east coast sea
breeze is forecast at the Treasure Coast terminals after 22Z.


&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 959 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

It was an active afternoon around east central Florida, with wind
damage reported in Lake County and hail in Indian River County.
Activity has diminished this evening, with no mentionable PoPs
included through the early morning hours. Beyond that, the
forecast remains unusually uncertain, due to a cold front forecast
to drop into the area into Sunday. Models disagree greatly on the
timing and occurrence of any showers and storms Sunday, though
some models suggest a line of showers and a few storms beginning
prior to sunrise north of I-4. Have included a 20-30% chance from
around Orlando northward to account for this, though confidence is
low. Main threats through sunrise will be lightning strikes,
gusty winds, and brief downpours. Elsewhere, dry conditions are
forecast to prevail through the overnight hours. Overnight lows
expected in the lower to mid-70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 959 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

Generally favorable boating conditions prevailing tonight. Mostly
dry conditions overnight, though a few showers and lightning
storms will be possible by daybreak along and offshore from the
Volusia County coast. Otherwise, southerly winds veering
southwesterly/westerly towards daybreak. Seas 2-3ft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  70  82  70 /  40  30  40  20
MCO  87  71  87  70 /  60  20  50  10
MLB  88  71  86  72 /  60  30  50  30
VRB  90  71  88  70 /  70  40  50  30
LEE  86  72  86  69 /  40  20  50  10
SFB  88  70  86  69 /  40  20  50  10
ORL  88  71  88  70 /  50  20  60  10
FPR  91  71  88  69 /  70  40  60  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Leahy
AVIATION...Law