237
FXUS62 KMLB 211425
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1025 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1025 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

A light to moderate low level NE flow will exist across the area
today, between high pressure to the north of the state and low
pressure well offshore over the west Atlantic. There is limited
moisture in place across the area, with morning soundings and
GOES-16 PW imagery showing PW values around 1-1.2" across central
FL. However, model guidance does show a modest increase in these
values to around 1.4-1.5" through the day with the onshore flow.
Mid-level trough axis extended across the area may allow for some
enhanced lift with the inland moving east coast sea breeze to
produce scattered showers and isolated storms. However, CAM
guidance showing less than impressive convective coverage today.
Therefore, lowered rain chances today, and are no more that 30-40
percent, mainly across the interior and northern coast, while for
coastal locations from Melbourne south, PoPs are only around 20
percent. Skies will be mostly to partly sunny, with highs in the
80s.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

Today...Mid level troughing remains in place across the western
Atlantic stretching southwestward across Florida. A 500mb vorticity
boundary pivots around its base, swinging across the peninsula
today. An associated area of surface low pressure offshore the
Florida east coast will promote northeast winds, increasing to 10-15
mph as a sea breeze moves inland this afternoon. Scattered showers
and lightning storms are forecast across much of east central
Florida today with models hinting at first development along the
Volusia coast. While some mid level vorticity may exist, sounding
profiles suggest limited storm organization overall. Steep low level
lapse rates could support quick updraft growth. However, the
potential for sustained stronger storms may remain limited due to
poor shear and poor lapse rates above 850mb. Localized DCAPE values
over 1,000 J/kg could possibly allow for a stronger downburst with
occasional wind gusts up to 50 mph.

Afternoon temperatures remain warm, near seasonal values. Forecasted
highs range the mid 80s along and east of I-95, warming into the
upper 80s across the interior. A few areas in vicinity of Lake
Okeechobee could even reach the 90 degree mark. Cooler temperatures
along the immediate Volusia Coast, mainly in the low 80s.

Wednesday...The wet, stormy pattern transitions as high pressure
builds at the surface and aloft. 500mb ridging across the western
Gulf extends over the state of Florida Wednesday. Coverage of
showers and storms dwindle with only an isolated mention near Lake
Okeechobee. Most notably, the building ridge will support a warming
temperature trend. Afternoon highs warm into mid to upper 80s along
the coast and near I-95, reaching the low 90s across much of the
interior.

Thursday-Monday...Anomalous ridging aloft holds steady on Thursday
as 500mb heights reach the 90th climatological percentile. Mid level
ridging continues to remain in place through the weekend, flattening
some as a shortwave moves across the eastern CONUS. At the surface,
high pressure extending offshore the Atlantic seaboard is nudged
seaward. In response, onshore flow veers south into Friday,
increasing moisture and precip chances into the weekend.

Temperatures remain on an upward trend through late week into early
next week, reaching the mid 90s across much of the interior by
Friday. Further warming could even support widespread mid to upper
90s by Sunday and Monday. Moisture return late week will further
support humid and muggy conditions, and maximum heat index values
reach 100-105 on Saturday into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 720 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

Mostly VFR conditions. Northerly morning winds 5-10 kts veer NE/ENE
with speeds increasing to 10-15 kts with higher afternoon gusts. The
ECSB will push inland during the afternoon and into WCFL in the
evening. ISOLD to WDLY SCT showers and perhaps an ISOLD lightning
storm is forecast but confidence low here. MVFR CIGs/VSBYs invof
convection. This activity will be associated with the inland moving
sea breeze. Will use "Vicinity" wording and TEMPO groups as
necessary. Diminished convective chances past early evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 318 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

Today-Tonight...Low pressure situated far offshore will support
northeast winds around 5-10 kts. Small craft should exercise
caution across the offshore Volusia and offshore Brevard waters
before sunrise for seas up to 6 ft in the Gulf Stream. Seas
gradually subside through the day, becoming widely 3-4 ft late
tonight. Scattered to numerous showers and scattered lightning
storms are forecast.

Wednesday-Saturday...Seas of 2-3 ft are forecast through late week,
promoting favorable boating conditions. Onshore winds around 5-10
kts veer south into Friday. Mostly dry with the best chance for a
shower or storm limited to the Treasure Coast waters. Isolated to
scattered showers then return across all waters on Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  84  71  85  69 /  30  10  10   0
MCO  88  71  90  69 /  40  10  10   0
MLB  85  73  85  72 /  20  10  10   0
VRB  87  71  87  70 /  20  20  10   0
LEE  88  71  91  71 /  40  10  10   0
SFB  87  70  90  69 /  30  10  10   0
ORL  88  71  90  70 /  40  10  10   0
FPR  87  70  87  69 /  20  20  20   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Weitlich
AVIATION...Sedlock