206
FXUS62 KMLB 281416
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1016 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1015 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

Remnant isolated showers from earlier storms across the Nature
Coast were dissipating on approach to Lake and Volusia counties.
This activity is along the leading edge of an outflow boundary,
stretching from Hernando to Marion counties, and is also moving in
sync with some higher GOES-derived PW values (1.7"+). Quick-
hitting showers may develop along the outflow as it pushes deeper
into central FL this morning. A band of increasing moisture
convergence is expected as we head into the afternoon, generally
south of I-4 toward Orlando/Cape Canaveral and south toward Lake
Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast. For these areas, PoP is in the
35-50 percent range with isolated to scattered storms expected.
Mid level dry air, a potential lingering surface inversion, and
modest mid level lapse rates will all work against robust
convective development. The QPF remains highest generally south
of Titusville toward the Treasure Coast, where the east coast
breeze may locally enhance storms late in the afternoon and early
this evening. The most organized storms today will be capable of
wind gusts to 50 mph, lightning strikes, and locally heavy
downpours.

Hot temperatures remain in the forecast with mid to upper 90s
expected, with the hottest locations across the southern half of
the forecast area. A couple of records could be approached,
especially on the Treasure Coast, depending on the
development and arrival time of the east coast breeze or
convection. Practice heat safety if outdoors by staying hydrated
and taking frequent breaks in the shade and air conditioned
spaces.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 313 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

Today-Tonight...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
today, mainly during the afternoon and into the evening hours, as
a weak cool front approaches the area. A few storms could produce
strong wind gusts. Otherwise, favorable boating conditions
prevailing, with winds remaining under 12kts. Offshore winds this
morning will back south/southeasterly this afternoon as the sea
breeze develops. Then, winds will once again become offshore
overnight. Seas 1-3ft.

Wednesday-Saturday...The aforementioned front will linger around
the area through the week, continuing shower and thunderstorm
chances each day. However, will see generally favorable boating
conditions persist, as onshore winds remain below 15kts through
the work week. By Saturday, though, high pressure building into
the western Atlantic is forecast to increase winds to up to
15-20kts, leading to poor boating conditions. Seas 1-3ft fore most
of the period building to up to 4ft on Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 313 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

Today (modified previous)...Sensitive fire weather conditions
persist today, as min RH values fall to 35-45% for much of the
area today. Increased shower and thunderstorm chances (up to
30-50%), mainly during the afternoon hours, will do little to
provide relief from hot high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s.
Westerly winds prevail today, though will see winds back east to
southeast this afternoon as the sea breeze develops but remains
pinned near the coast. High mixing heights will lead to another
day of excellent dispersion, with control issues likely. Also,
lightning strikes could lead to additional fire starts.

Wednesday-Friday...Drier air moving into the area mid to late week
will lead to very sensitive fire weather conditions as min RH
values dip to as low as 25-30% over the interior, especially
Wednesday and Thursday. Coastal areas will remain between 35-50%.
Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible each day. Fortunately,
wind speeds are forecast to remain below 15mph, as northerly
winds early Wednesday veer onshore and remain that way through the
period. Dispersion will remain excellent, so control issues will
likely persist.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 720 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

Light and variable winds becoming westerly today around 10 knots
after 15Z. Increasing rain and storm chances today as a weak
front approaches and the east coast sea breeze develops and moves
inland. Added TEMPOs in with this package to account for best
chances for TSRA, with at least MVFR VIS and CIGs expected.
Further amendments may be needed to timing as the picture becomes
clearer. Activity will diminish across the interior terminals as
showers and storms move offshore. Continued VCSH after 21Z along
the coast until about 03Z. Winds becoming light and variable at
all terminals overnight.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 313 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

Hot afternoon temperatures today will once again threaten a few
records, mainly along the coast from Melbourne southward. The
current record high temperatures around the area are as follows:

              Record
               High   Year

Daytona Beach   99    2000
Leesburg        98    2000
Sanford        100    1953
Orlando         99    2000
Melbourne       97    2000
Vero Beach      96    1967
Fort Pierce     95    2000

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  93  72  91  70 /  30  10  10   0
MCO  94  74  96  71 /  40  10  10   0
MLB  94  74  91  73 /  40  20  20  10
VRB  95  72  92  72 /  50  30  20  10
LEE  92  73  95  71 /  40   0  10   0
SFB  95  73  96  71 /  40  10  10   0
ORL  94  74  97  73 /  40  10  10   0
FPR  95  72  92  71 /  50  30  30  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaper
AVIATION...Tollefsen