390
FNUS72 KMLB 011151
FWSMLB

Spot Forecast for Horseshoe WF...Florida Forest Service
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
751 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0800 EDT on June 01.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Mainly dry and breezy/gusty conditions will continue
fire sensitivity today. Min RH values will hover in the low 40s across
the burn area. But sustained East winds 10 to 15 mph with frequent
higher gusts (up to around 25 mph) will produce Very Good to Excellent
dispersions. Combined with dry fuels, any new or ongoing fires may
spread rapidly. East to east-southeast winds this evening will be slow
to diminish through the evening. Fog is not anticipated.

On Sunday, the onshore winds will decrease some and the dry airmass
will modify allowing min RH values to hold near 50 percent. There
will also be an increasing chance (30%) for mainly afternoon and early
evening showers and lightning storms. Rain/storm chances should remain
below normal during the early to mid next week but critically low RH
values are not forecast.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 88.
Min humidity........43 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 10 to 15 mph with frequent higher
                    gusts.
Mixing height.......900 ft AGL increasing to 6400 ft AGL in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....Easterly 13 to 16 mph.
Dispersion index....Increasing up to around 72.
LVORI...............3 decreasing to 1.

TIME (EDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........18  19  25  26  33  31  37  32  46  36
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............72  76  81  83  85  86  86  87  87  86
RH..............76  69  58  53  50  46  45  43  43  45
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..7   8   9   12  12  13  13  13  14  14
20 FT wind gust.13  15  17  20  21  21  22  22  22  21
Mix hgt (kft)...0.9 5.0 5.0 5.8 6.2 6.2 6.4 6.3 6.1 5.9
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.13  16  16  15  13  13  13  13  13  13
Dispersion idx..19  75  72  69  59  59  58  58  57  59
LVORI...........3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 67.
Max humidity........84 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 8 to 13 mph with higher gusts in the
                    evening becoming light overnight.
Mixing height.......4300 ft AGL decreasing to 400 ft AGL early in
                    the evening.
Transport winds.....East 8 to 15 mph.
Dispersion index....Decreasing to around 4 overnight.
LVORI...............Increasing to around 5.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........34     39     34     25     24     24
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      10     0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............86     79     75     72     70     69
RH..............45     58     66     76     78     81
20 ft wind......E 13   E 10   E 6    E 3    E 2    E 2
20 ft wind gust.21     18     14     12     8      7
Mix hgt (ft)....5100   2300   600    500    500    400
Transport wind..E 15   E 15   E 14   E 10   SE 8   E 8
Dispersion idx..61     10     6      5      4      4
LVORI...........1      2      3      3      4      5

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Chance of mainly
                    afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 0800, then 1-8 strikes until
                    1400, then 9-15 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 89.
Min humidity........52 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming east 6 to 9 mph with some
                    higher gusts. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......2100 ft AGL increasing to 6600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 7 to 9 mph.
Dispersion index....Increasing to around 59.
LVORI...............5 decreasing to 1.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........38     21     41     48     57     47
Weather cov.....              S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....NONE          RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........              S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).0      10     20     20     30     30
LAL.............1      1      2      2      3      3
Temp............68     72     80     84     87     87
RH..............84     81     67     59     52     53
20 ft wind......E 2    E 2    E 6    E 7    E 6    E 7
20 ft wind gust.7      8      12     14     15     16
Mix hgt (ft)....400    600    3600   5600   6600   6300
Transport wind..SE 8   E 8    E 9    E 8    E 7    E 8
Dispersion idx..3      6      42     54     56     56
LVORI...........5      4      1      1      1      1

$$
Forecaster...Sedlock
Requested by...Brad Weller
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2415429.1/MLB
.DELDT 06/01/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Bradley.weller@fdacs.gov