138
FXUS63 KMPX 260132
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
832 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm front pushes northeastward this afternoon/evening,
  bringing a chance for showers/storms across western and
  central Minnesota.

- The active pattern continues for Memorial Day weekend,
  especially tomorrow when widespread rain is likely across
  southeast MN and western WI.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 821 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Main change noted with the forecast for tonight through Sunday
morning is diminishing chances for rain pretty much area wide.
The band of rainfall developing along the warm front from
southern SD, northeast through western MN to the south of
Duluth is mostly losing its battle with dry air in the MPX area
and that trend is expected to continue through the night. For
the rain chance moving up out of Iowa late tonight into Sunday
morning, this continues to drift southeast in the HRRR, it`s now
looking like the precip shield to the northwest of the surface
low will only make at about as far northwest as a Blue Earth
(city), to Red Wing, and Rice Lake line, so for the Twin Cities,
it`s looking increasingly likely that Sunday will be dry.
Instead, it`s now looking like Memorial Day itself will bring
the best chance for rain area wide. The culprit will be the
shortwave currently over southern BC that will slide south of
the Canadian trough into MN Monday afternoon, with scattered
showers/storms developing, in particular along the I-94
corridor.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

A warm front, stretching from central South Dakota towards southern
Minnesota, is slowly pushing its way northeastward this afternoon. A
broad area of radar reflectivity returns draped over eastern
South Dakota and southwestern Minnesota will follow the warm
front as it heads into western and central Minnesota later this
afternoon/evening. Given the dry layer of air near the surface,
many locations have not been reporting any precip making it to
the ground. This is expected to be the case for the majority of
south- central and eastern Minnesota as well. We have maintained
a narrow line of likely (50-70%) PoPs extending from Lac Qui
Parle towards Kanabec counties in Minnesota, where the forcing
will be strongest and moisture more abundant. A few pockets of
stronger storms are possible, especially further north where we
could see up to 50kts of effective bulk shear and 1000 J/kg of
SBCAPE. This line will weaken overnight, giving a brief break
until showers/storms pick back tomorrow morning. This second
round will primarily impact the southeastern corner of Minnesota
and western Wisconsin, but it could clip the Twin Cities metro
late morning into the afternoon. Areas that see rain tomorrow
could receive around 0.25-0.5" with locally higher amounts
possible as you head into central Wisconsin.

Following the system tomorrow, a pair of shortwaves are still on
track to ride along the primary circulation and bring additional
chances for rain early next week. QPF remains low, with only up to a
couple tenths expected through both disturbances. The latest
forecast package favors the first wave to track a little further
west than the second, further limiting any notion of this being a
period of widespread, soaking rain. While a rumble of thunder will
not be out of the question, the potential for anything severe looks
to be low for both waves (weak lapse rates and limited 0-3km MUCAPE).

The area of broad troughing ultimately slides east as ridging builds
in over the central Plains around mid-week. This should result in a
small stretch of nice outdoor days, with mostly clear skies and
light winds. Temperatures during this time frame will attempt to
push into the upper 70s for much of Minnesota and Wisconsin.

We could be looking at another active period by the end of the week,
with global models hinting at a potentially deep, strengthening
trough slicing through the Upper Midwest. Both deterministic and
ensemble guidance show a strong moisture plume extending from the
Gulf up into parts of northern Manitoba and Ontario. While severity
and timing are difficult to lock in this far out, there is certainly
potential for another wet and active period heading into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 730 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Biggest trend from the going TAFs is the rapidly diminishing
precip chances, unless you`re at EAU. The band of rain expected
from west central through central MN looks to mostly lose its
battle with dry air, with virga and occasional sprinkles
expected at AXN/STC. The system that comes across Iowa tonight
continues to drift south, with only EAU for sure looking to get
some light rain out of this going into Sunday morning. Though
sites like MSP/MKT/RNH now look most likely to remain dry, they
will still see 5-8 hours of MVFR, possibly IFR cigs as the low
clips the southeast tip of MN.

KMSP...kept a precip mention in for Sunday morning, but demoted
it to a prob30 group as it looks like -RA slides just to the
southeast of the field. Low cigs still look like a lock, with
cigs down to 012 possible.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...Mainly VFR. Chance -SHRA/MVFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind VRB 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MPG
DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...MPG