Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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082 FXUS63 KMPX 290534 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1234 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers this afternoon diminish this evening and overnight. Skies remain clear throughout Wednesday. - Shower and storm chances increase late Thursday into Friday, persisting through the weekend. Overall coverage will be isolated to scattered, no strong storms expected. - Our next chance for more widespread showers and storms arrives by Monday next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 232 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue to drift southeast this afternoon, as cold air advection from northwesterly flow aloft produces a bit of lift before the system pushes eastwards overnight. Shower and storm activity should begin to diminish by the evening, with skies gradually clearing overnight ahead of mostly clear skies tomorrow. There has been a bit of lightning observed within a few of the storms this afternoon as well as some pea sized hail, however nothing more than this is currently expected due to the relatively weak forcing and diminishing moisture profile. As skies clear out and with additional sunshine, temperatures tomorrow should end up more than 5 degrees greater than this afternoon as highs reach the low 70s Wednesday and mid to upper 70s on Thursday, as winds shift southerly over the next few days. As we head towards Thursday evening and into Friday, chances for showers and storms will rise as a broad 850mb jet begins to stream gulf moisture towards the region, with this jet strengthening over the Dakotas on Thursday before moving eastwards with a broad 500mb trough into Friday. The influx of moisture and broader forcing from the trough should allow for a brief period of higher coverage of showers and storms on Friday before we settle back into more isolated coverage over the weekend. There is only a small chance for thunderstorms as the timing works out such that the heaviest rain moves through Friday morning with limited instability to work with, generally under 250 j/kg SBCAPE and 500 j/kg MUCAPE. Low level shear is enough to maintain a storm should it get going, however the vast majority of rainfall will come from more run of the mill showers. Zonal flow aloft will continue to produce small impulses and shortwaves over the weekend with slight chances for showers and storms throughout, although we still see a general lack of instability to produce anything resembling a severe thunderstorm. The best chance for more sustained and widespread rainfall looks to arrive early next week by Monday morning with solid consistency between deterministic synoptic scale guidance on a plume of moisture flowing northwards from the Gulf, allowing for increased coverage of showers and storms via an arriving trough. Given the increased moisture, this would also be our best opportunity for a few stronger storms, however we are far enough out such that models have yet to catch up on any major instability being present amidst the rainfall. QPF response is relatively muted due to the convective potential, however unlike the weekend showers should result in at least some rainfall for the majority of the coverage area. The pattern beyond Monday shows potential for an occlusion over the Great Lakes to produce more cold air advection wrap around showers, however until we get closer this is low confidence for now. Overall, a fairly classic summer pattern is ahead of us with sporadic chances for showers and weak storms with a lack of significant instability for any stronger storms within the current forecast. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1233 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Prevailing VFR through the entire TAF period. Light and variable winds this morning increasing to 5-10kts from the southeast this afternoon. Some areas of few/sct diurnal mid-level cu could develop after 18z but no impacts to categories/cigs expected. KMSP...No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR, chc MVFR/-SHRA late. Winds S 10-15G25kts. FRI...VFR/MVFR, chc IFR/-TSRA early. Winds S 10kts. SAT...VFR/MVFR, chc -TSRA. Winds SW 10kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TDH AVIATION...Dunleavy