318
FNUS73 KMPX 161302
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Edwards Central...FWS
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
802 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 CDT on May 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
For Edwards Central, dewpoints will decrease slightly while
temperatures rise back up into the low 70s this afternoon. As
such, we`ll see RH values gradually decrease through the morning
and afternoon until bottoming out in the low-mid 40s around 3-5pm.
Winds will stay out of the northwest today at generally 10-15mph.
Scattered light rain is possible (5-15% chance) overnight,
otherwise dry weather will persist over the next 48 hours.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Temperature.........62 at ignition...Max 72.
RH..................69 percent at ignition...Min 45 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds northwest at 14 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Northwest winds 9 to 14
                    mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good /48400 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /81200 knot-ft/.
Mixing height.......3200 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 5800 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....West 15 to 17 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 4.

TIME (CDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P
Sky cover.......MC  PC  PC  PC  MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR PC  PC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............62  64  66  68  69  71  71  70  68  64  62  59
RH..............69  65  59  52  49  46  45  47  53  61  68  72
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   S   SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..14  13  13  12  10  9   7   6   5   5   6   6
20 FT wind gust.21  18  18  17  16  14  12  9   8   8   8   9
Mix hgt (kft)...3.2 3.9 4.8 5.4 5.8 5.8 4.9 4.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  E   S   SE
Transp wind spd.17  17  15  16  16  15  12  8   7   8   9   10
Haines index....3   4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Temperature.........Min 55.
RH..................Max 78 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 7 mph shifting to the southeast
                    5 to 8 mph in the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (49100 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (2500 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 7 to 12 mph shifting to the east around 8
                    mph late in the evening, then shifting to the
                    south 9 to 16 mph in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent).
Temperature.........Max 88.
RH..................Min 24 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 9 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (5000 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (77200 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (100700
                    knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......7500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 14 to 20 mph.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Dettmann
Requested by...Millette
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414380.0/MPX
.DELDT 05/16/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL phil_millette@fws.gov