790
FNUS73 KMPX 171038
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Ripley Esker SNA May 17 Rx Burn...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
538 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on May 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
A few stray showers can`t be ruled out this morning, but by the afternoon
skies are expected to clear out with temperatures making a run up into
the 80s, with RHs as low as the upper 20s possible. Winds will be light
with the clouds and isolated showers this morning, but will pick up in
strength this afternoon out of the south. Given the clouds, temperatures
may be a bit slower to warm up in the morning than what is currently forecast,
but we will warm up quick once clouds thin and mixing deepens.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Temperature.........62 at ignition...Max 81.
RH..................71 percent at ignition...Min 37 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds south at 8 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    South winds 8 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair /17300 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /102800 knot-ft/.
Mixing height.......1200 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 6900 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....South 14 to 17 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM
Sky cover.......PC  PC  MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............62  65  68  72  75  78  79  80  81  80  79  76
RH..............71  69  62  54  49  43  41  37  37  39  42  47
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SE
20 FT wind spd..8   8   9   9   10  10  12  10  10  10  9   9
20 FT wind gust.14  14  15  15  16  16  17  16  17  16  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...1.2 1.8 2.6 3.1 3.8 4.7 5.6 6.9 5.9 4.9 1.0 0.6
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  S   S   S
Transp wind spd.16  15  14  14  14  15  16  17  16  16  14  14
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms after 3 am. Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms after 3 am.
Temperature.........Min 63.
RH..................Max 71 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 7 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms after 3 am.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (68700 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (6900 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 14 to 20 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the morning.
Temperature.........Max 72.
RH..................Min 33 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 9 to 12 mph shifting to the west 15
                    to 17 mph with gusts to around 28 mph in the
                    afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms early in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (9200 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (103300 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (96600
                    knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......5600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 16 to 24 mph shifting to the west 22 to
                    28 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Griesinger
Requested by...Robert Bale
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414464.0/MPX
.DELDT 05/17/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL robert.bale@tnc.org