Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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086 FXUS63 KOAX 281924 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 224 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and dry conditions are expected today and tomorrow. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. - Weather patterns gets more active beginning Thursday, with daily chances of precipitation across the entire region. - There is some concern for heavy rainfall and localized flooding south of I-80 Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 224 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Pretty quiet across the region this afternoon with surface high pressure largely in control, though we remained on the periphery of cyclonic flow aloft with a weak surface cold front sliding through. This has led to some cumulus development, and with model soundings showing a decent bit of instability in the cloud layer, can`t completely rule out a few sprinkles falling out of the clouds, but with dry low-levels it`s pretty likely (95+% chance) you`ll stay dry. Otherwise, temperatures as of 2 PM were in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Expect similar quiet weather Wednesday as upper level ridging pushes in and temperatures top out in the mid 70s to lower 80s once again with southerly flow returning to the area. The pattern becomes more active again by Thursday as the upper level ridge pushes off to the east and some shortwave energy and a surface cold front start to move into the area. As a result, guidance is in good agreement that we`ll see fairly widespread showers and storms by Thursday afternoon. Current indications are that the primary instability axis will stay off to our south and west and shear will be quite weak, which should limit the overall strength of the storms rather significantly. Still, could be enough for some small hail and/or gusty winds. Plus, with the weak shear, storms will move quite slowly and with NAEFS suggesting mean precipitable water values of 1.25+ inches (90th+ percentile of climatology), heavy rain and localized flooding could become a threat. Precip will continue into Friday, at least on and off through much of the day, but general intensity will gradually decrease as we go through the day. We should see a break in the precip Friday evening through at least part of the day Saturday before another bit of shortwave energy slides through and brings more shower and storm chances. Yet another wave looks to slide through on Sunday, with some hints that it could be a bit stronger/more amplified with a little more instability in place. This could yield our next best chance for severe weather, and the CSU machine learning severe weather outlooks suggest potential for the weekend, especially Sunday, but there still remains quite a bit of spread between ensemble members and there will be lots of smaller scale details to work out between now and then. For what it`s worth, guidance seems to be in decent agreement that shear could still be rather weak, so that could end up limiting our severe weather threat somewhat. But again, still lots to work out between now and then. Outside of the increasing storm chances later in the week through the weekend, the main story looks to be increasing temperatures. Guidance is in pretty good agreement that the entire area will be firmly in the 80s by Sunday, with some hints at a few spots making a run at 90 by early to mid next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1204 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 VFR conditions expected through the period with some clouds around 7000 ft this afternoon and some mid-level clouds overnight into Wednesday. Northwest winds will gust 20 to 25 kts this afternoon before weakening this evening and turning clockwise, eventually setting in at southeasterly. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CA AVIATION...CA