Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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693 FXUS64 KOHX 260142 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 842 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 842 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 We will get to enjoy quiet weather this evening and that will continue into the overnight. With dew points above 70 across much of the area it will feel humid tho. ***Tomorrow is still looking like an active severe weather day and you will need to be weather aware and have a plan and place to take shelter if bad weather hits your location.*** Thunderstorms over NE, KS, and OK will push east overnight. We should see the southern part of this line weaken as it pushes east. That will keep much of our area dry for the morning but north of I-40 could get some activity after 8 AM. Soundings in the morning show a strong CAP keeping convection elevated. This will overall limit the severe threat with this round but still could see an isolated strong cell that could produce large hail or some gusty winds. This round should push out of the area by the late morning. The atmosphere will rapidly destabilize in the afternoon with bulk shear above 50 knots. 0-1 km shear will be increasing as the afternoon goes on and will push above 20 knots by 7 pm and continuing to increase in the evening. We will also see large amounts of CAPE in the hail growth zone especially in the afternoon and early evening. This means that all modes of severe weather are possible tomorrow. The greatest tornado risk looks to come between 5 PM to midnight or so as the low level jet increasing and the CAP is overall weak. Once the morning round of storms pushes out its unclear how much development we will see in the afternoon and early evening. There won`t be large forcing but old outflow boundaries could kick things off. If anything goes up in the afternoon and evening it becoming severe seems likely. Confidence in thunderstorms will increase in the evening as a cold front approaches the area. This line of thunderstorms will move in after 10 PM and will push east through the overnight. Wind in going to be the primary threat with the line of thunderstorms but low level shear will still be sufficient for tornadoes and some large hail will also be possible. PWATs will be extremely high tomorrow pushing above 1.50" and heavy rain will also be a concern with any thunderstorms. Storm motion does look to be somewhat quick which will help but flooding will still be possible tomorrow. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Memorial Day) Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Showers and thunderstorms experienced during the early morning hours are now long gone. Some light radar returns noted across Cumberland Plateau Region as noontime hour approaches. Can not totally rule out the possibility of an isolated shower or thunderstorm this afternoon, especially if a weak embedded shortwave moves across our area, becomes a little more enhanced as it pushes into eastern portions of our area late this afternoon as some of the latest CAMs suggest, but overall, generally dry conditions should prevail through afternoon hours today with highs a few degrees above seasonal normal values. Look for any shower or thunderstorm chances to mainly be confined to Cumberland Plateau Region tonight as a shortwave approaches. Lows tonight will be quite seasonably mild spanning the 60s. Quandaries abound when it comes to shower and thunderstorm chances late tonight through the day on Sunday. How convection develops to our west today and possibly pushes eastward tonight will be one factor to consider. Some CAMs and some of the more traditional models have showers and thunderstorms moving west to east across our area late tonight through at least the morning hours on Sunday. Some models keep the brunt of convection to our north. What ever turns out to be, there is certainly potential for some of that convection to be strong to severe, with strong to damaging winds main concern, but all hazardous modes will be possible, including brief heavy rainfall. But again, there is a chance mid state will not see much if any showers or thunderstorms as day on Sunday progresses. Temperatures will be quite seasonably warm with highs as warm as upper 80s to lower 90s, low to mid 80s for locations just west of and across Cumberland Plateau Region. While quandaries abound as day on Sunday progresses, little disagreement with models on how Sunday night progresses, with the best potential of strong to severe thunderstorms, damaging winds continuing to be main concern, but certainly can not rule out all hazard modes,as a potential southeastward propagating convective system moves out of the central MS, western Ohio River Valley Region into our area as the evening through at least the early overnight hours progress. MUCAPE values could approach 3,000 J/KG, mid level lapse rates around 7.5C/km , effective bulk shear values approaching 50kt, SRH sfc to 3 km values as high as approaching 450 m2/s2, PW approaching 1.8 inches, along with potentially significant right turning hodographs. Certainly looks like some heavy rainfall could occur at times too, especially during the overnight hours across locations east of I-65 Corridor, especially Upper Cumberland Region. Lows Sunday night will mainly range mid to upper 60s. A surface front will eventually push through our area as Memorial Day progresses, with potential of at least some strong convection across eastern portions of our area through remainder of morning hours. Shower and thunderstorm chances will decrease from the west as the day progresses. Highs on Memorial Day will cool down somewhat, but still be seasonably warm in low to mid 80s, upper 70s to around 80 Cumberland Plateau Region. && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through next Saturday) Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Dry conditions will finally prevail by Monday night with a dry surface cold front dropping from the north as Tuesday progresses with broad surface high pressure influences prevailing. Along with broad upper level troughing across most of eastern CONUS providing northwesterly flow across our neck of the woods through at least Thursday, a progression to cooler temperatures will commence beginning on Monday night with lows by Wednesday and Thursday Nights spanning the 50s with highs on Thursday only in the upper 70s to lower 80s, mid 70s Cumberland Plateau Region. A warmup will begin on Friday into first part of next weekend with temperatures once again several degrees above seasonal normal values as upper level ridging influences move across our area. As surface and upper level ridging influences begin to shift eastward, a more southerly low level atmospheric flow pattern will develop supporting increased moisture advection across our area that could result in shower and thunderstorm chances returning to mid state region as Friday night into Saturday progresses. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 650 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 VFR conditions this evening and tonight, but the Cumberland Plateau could see some patchy fog leading to periods of MVFR. Showers and thunderstorms move through the northern CWA Sunday morning leading to some MVFR conditions, but largely thinking VFR through the afternoon. The next wave of storms arrive Sunday evening after 00z. These storms could be severe bringing heavy rain, hail, and gusty winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 69 89 70 86 / 30 50 90 40 Clarksville 68 88 69 82 / 10 50 90 30 Crossville 62 82 63 78 / 30 60 80 80 Columbia 67 89 68 85 / 30 40 90 40 Cookeville 64 84 66 79 / 30 60 90 70 Jamestown 63 83 64 78 / 30 60 90 80 Lawrenceburg 67 88 68 84 / 30 40 90 40 Murfreesboro 67 89 67 85 / 30 40 90 50 Waverly 67 89 68 83 / 20 50 90 20 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Mueller SHORT TERM...JB Wright LONG TERM....JB Wright AVIATION.....Cravens