285
FXUS61 KOKX 030225
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1025 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure slides south of the area as a weak disturbance
moves through tonight and into the beginning of Monday. High
pressure then builds back across the area Monday night,
lingering through mid- week before heading out into the Atlantic
for the latter half of the week. A series of frontal system
then approaches from the west Thursday through next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
The forecast remains on track this evening. An isolated shower
may still be possible especially across the interior through
08Z?09Z. Mid and lower levels are quite dry below about 700mb
per NYSM profiler in Suffern along with surface dewpoint
depressions of 15-20 degrees at 23Z. Have adjusted PoPs
accordingly for the next few hours as radar returns continue to
weaken any activity moving into the western CWA.

Clouds will be on the increase into this evening as a mid-
level disturbance moves into the area from the west. This mid-
level shortwave becomes less defined and weakens as it
approaches the area. Any showers that are associated with it
will weaken or dissipate as they approach from the west this
evening and into the first half of tonight. The combination of
showers falling out of a mid- level cloud deck with low level
dry air from the departing high as well as the weakening forcing
should allow for not much more than cloud cover tonight.

Lows tonight will be warm, generally in the low to middle 60s,
though the city will likely remain in the upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The shortwave passes overhead with a weak mid-level trough remaining
over the area on Monday. With skies becoming clearer on Monday with
the departing shortwave, temperatures will once again rise into the
low to middle 80s for much of the area. Winds will remain light out
of the west, gradually shifting to the southwest and south with
seabreeze enhancement into the afternoon. Some CAMs are indicating
some instability developing into the afternoon, primarily for areas
away from the immediate coastline. This may provide for some stray
convective showers or thunderstorms for inland areas, so kept a
slight chance for this potential, though it is fairly dependent on a
combination of clearing skies and thus more ample daytime
heating and a slightly moister BL.

Any shower or storm weakens by evening as the mid-level heights
begin to recover and ridge a bit more. This allows a surface
high pressure to build back into the region from Southeast
Canada Monday night and into Tuesday. Lows Monday night will be
in the middle 50s to low 60s, a bit cooler than previous nights.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
*Key Points*

*Seasonable temperatures through the end of the week becoming
slightly below by the weekend.

*Dry conditions expected Tuesday and Wednesday followed by wet
weather for week`s end and through next weekend.

There has been not much change in the forecast thinking for this
update; have stuck close to the NBM with local adjustments.

Global ensembles are in generally good agreement with the synoptic
pattern through next weekend though some timing and magnitude
differences exist. Ridging aloft continues to shift east on Tuesday
and Wednesday as the ridge axis passes east of the area.
The ridge then flattens to a more zonal flow by Thursday and Friday.
This is the result of a sprawling upper low taking shape over the
central Canadian Maritimes, of Pacific origin, that will head
southeast into Friday and settles over eastern Canada (EC) or over
the northeast (GFS and CMC) by the weekend. Regardless, this will
return us to a somewhat cooler and wetter pattern toward the end of
the long term period.

At the surface, high pressure centered over New England on Tuesday
shifts offshore by Wednesday. Interior sections will be warmest for
these two days under dry conditions with east/southeast flow keeping
coastal areas a few degrees cooler. Highs in the upper 70s to near
80, with low 70s for the coast each day.

By Thursday, a surface low north of Great Lakes, associated with the
aforementioned upper low heads slowly east. An associated warm front
approaches the area on Thursday and remains over, or just north of
the area. Shower chances ramp up on Thursday morning and moreso by
Thursday afternoon with the front in the vicinity. Have maintained
thunder in the forecast as model soundings continue to show some
elevated instability/CAPE Thursday afternoon into evening, which
seems reasonable in the warm sector should some clearing occur
during the day. However, the bulk of the precipitation looks to fall
after 00Z Friday which should limit the convective potential
somewhat. Deep southerly flow ahead of this frontal system will
increase available moisture...see the Hydrology section below for
additional details.

The main cold front pushes through the area as the surface low heads
east by Friday. Given that the large upper low remains to the north
with the local area under deep cyclonic flow, another frontal system
quickly follows Friday into Saturday with additional showers and
thunder possible.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure gradually moves farther out into the Atlantic
through Monday. Meanwhile, a weakening disturbance moves
through overnight into early Monday morning. Weak high pressure
builds from the N and NE late Monday.

VFR and predominantly dry conditions are expected through the TAF
period. A shower is possible 06Z to 09Z for the NYC metro
terminals with the other terminals most likely remaining dry.

Low confidence with the winds overnight through Monday as winds
may be light and variable much of the time. However, a light N
flow is also possible late morning into the early afternoon.
Higher confidence with the winds at KJFK, KBDR, and KGON where
sea breezes are expected.


    NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

The terminals may remain dry overnight as showers weaken and dry
air remains.

Winds Monday will be light, 4 to 8kt, and directions are
uncertain, and may be northerly for a time late morning into the
afternoon at KEWR, KTEB, and KLGA. More confident in the winds
at KJFK with a sea breeze developing late morning.


OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday night - Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: VFR during the day. MVFR or lower possible late day
into the night with chances of showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday: MVFR or lower possible in rain showers, possible
thunderstorms afternoon into night.

Friday: MVFR possible at times in showers and thunderstorms.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions will remain below SCA levels through mid week, with
seas on the ocean generally 3 ft or less. The ocean waters may
begin to approach SCA conditions with 4-5 ft waves Thursday
afternoon into Friday under enhanced southerly flow.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through Wednesday. Isolated
heavy rain with any showers or thunderstorms Thursday into
Friday is possible. PWATS could reach 1.75-2 inches Thursday
into Thursday night which is above the 90th percentile and
nearing the daily max for the date, per SPC sounding climatology
for OKX. WPC has placed much of the area into a MRGL risk of
excessive rainfall on Thursday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
With the approach of a new moon this week, astronomical levels will
be on the rise. With winds becoming more southerly and eventually
southeasterly, this will allow for increasing surge this week. As a
result, some locations especially across the Western LI Sound
and LI South Shore back bays may see minor coastal flooding,
starting with Monday afternoon`s high tide cycle and becoming
more widespread Tuesday night and Wednesday night.

For now have held off on statements for the Monday afternoon
high tide cycle. Stevens guidance shows minor flood benchmarks
being approached, or exceeded by a few tenths for a few spots
along southern Nassau and the Western Sound. Thus, trends will
need to be monitored in subsequent cycles as minor coastal
flooding will become more likely for these areas Tuesday into
Wed.

There is a low rip current risk through Tuesday due to low seas
on the ocean and southerly winds mainly 10 kt or less.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DBR/MW
NEAR TERM...DBR/MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...DBR
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...DBR/MW
HYDROLOGY...DBR/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...