Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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403 FXUS64 KOUN 300010 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 710 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 256 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 This Evening: Low (20-30%) storm chances remain along and east of the I-35 corridor through ~sunset. Satellite imagery captures a remnant mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) meandering across portions of north-central into northeast Oklahoma early this afternoon. As surface insolation/heating continues, isolated precipitation cores are expected to develop in vicinity of this feature. A strong storm or two is possible (with a gusty wind/small hail concern), as wind shear remains on the margin for organized storms. Thursday: Potential exists for multiple waves of storms on Thursday, including intermittent/scattered severe outcomes, though timing and coverage remain uncertain. An initial round/complex of storms is possible by as early as ~2-4 AM Thursday morning, as previous convection across the High Plains merges/consolidates along advancing cold pools. A modest (20-30 kt) low-level jet along with increasing mass flux into the area may ultimately promote maintenance of a storm cluster/line into portions of northwestern/western/west-central Oklahoma Thursday morning. This includes some potential for severe weather (damaging winds and hail) owing to sufficient instability and wind shear expected. Depending on the exact evolution and coverage of the morning round of storms/precipitation, potential exists for an additional/second round during the evening into overnight period. A weak lee wave is expected to slide into portions of the panhandles/southwest Kansas by Thursday afternoon. This is forecast to instigate convective development across these areas. Some CAM members suggest that a semi-organized cluster of storms may ultimately impact portions of western/west-central Oklahoma and western-north Texas during the evening hours. This round of convection would likely offer greater opportunity for severe weather owing to stronger wind shear/instability in place (compared to the morning). However, potential for boundary layer modification from early day precipitation casts uncertainty in magnitude/favored corridors of severe concern Thursday evening. The potential for heavy rainfall and flooding will also be closely monitored over coming forecast cycles. Antecedent conditions (for flooding) are most favorable across southern Oklahoma/western-north Texas, where previous heavy rain has fallen early this week. However, at least isolated flooding concern will exist across the entire area if/where repeated rounds of heavy storms occur. Ungar && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 256 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 At least low (20-30%) shower/storm chances remain evident through much of the extended period. Grand ensemble guidance highlights potential for the upper pattern to transition towards a dominant western CONUS ridge by the middle of next week. In the meantime (through early next week), quasi-zonal flow and an active subtropical jet will foster potential for continued rounds of convection from the High Plains into portions of our forecast area. At this point, timing and impact of any one round of showers/storms is uncertain, though climatology (with initial activity across the High Plains during the afternoon/evening) would favor a peak in convective potential during the late evening/early morning periods. For temperatures, a gradual increase in daily high temperatures is expected from the late week into weekend. Thursday/Friday may feature areas of below average afternoon temperatures (mid to upper- 70s), owing to cloud cover and early day precipitation. Near to above average temperatures are expected by the next work week as daytime precipitation chances diminish. Ungar && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 707 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 A complex of showers and thunderstorms are expected to move into northwestern Oklahoma early Thursday and continue through much of central and southern Oklahoma by afternoon. Gusty winds and hail are possible with some storms. MVFR conditions are likely in storm. East to southeast winds are expected outside of thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 66 78 63 77 / 20 60 80 80 Hobart OK 66 80 62 80 / 40 70 70 70 Wichita Falls TX 68 82 65 79 / 40 50 70 70 Gage OK 65 83 59 80 / 40 60 90 40 Ponca City OK 64 79 64 77 / 10 50 80 80 Durant OK 67 80 66 78 / 30 70 70 90 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...34 LONG TERM....34 AVIATION...09