Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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413 FXUS64 KOUN 291738 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 239 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 A pattern of warm air advection with weak upper waves moving through continues today and tonight. The overall effect of this will be to keep at least low chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through the short term period. CAMs don`t show much in the way of daytime convection. However, models tend to struggle with this type of warm air advection / high moisture pattern (as we saw yesterday). Additionally, as mentioned in the previous AFD, CAMs suggest a MCV traversing the I-40 corridor during the day, further enhancing my skepticism of the CAMs lack of convection. For the most part, any convection should stay sub- severe, though we could see a brief window for strong to marginally severe storms late this afternoon (MUCAPE increases to 1000-1500 joules over southern Oklahoma / north Texas in the afternoon with modest deep layer shear of around 40-45 knots). Tonight, models suggest storms forming off the caprock again, merging into an MCS before moving into our forecast area overnight with convection lingering into Thursday morning. Day && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 239 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Warm, moist low level flow and weak upper level flow continue to be the rule through the end of the week, keeping daily chances for showers and storms in the forecast. Thursday night stands out for MCS potential as a shortwave passes over the area. Damaging wind gusts and heavy rain would be the main risks. With all the precipitation and cloud cover, temperatures will remain on the cool side (upper 70s / lower 80s) through Friday. Some weak ridging will allow temperatures to warm and PoPs to decrease somewhat (though daily 20-30% will still remain) this weekend into early next week. Day && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Most sites will remain VFR through the rest of the afternoon. The exception may be in the eastern part of our area, where a low chance exists for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Those would bring attendant reductions in ceilings and visibilities. Expect a reduction in ceilings to widespread MVFR just before daybreak with some sites reaching down into the IFR category near sunrise. A rather widespread round of storms is expected overnight and early tomorrow morning, though timing remains uncertain. Winds will remain on the modest side out of the southeast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 66 78 64 76 / 40 60 70 70 Hobart OK 64 80 63 78 / 40 60 80 60 Wichita Falls TX 68 82 66 78 / 40 50 60 60 Gage OK 62 80 59 77 / 50 70 90 40 Ponca City OK 63 78 63 76 / 30 50 70 70 Durant OK 67 79 66 77 / 50 60 50 70 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...04