723
FXUS63 KPAH 010635
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
135 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An unsettled weather pattern is forecast to remain in place
  this weekend and next week, resulting in on and off chances of
  showers and storms.

- Temperatures are expected to remain near to a bit above
  average.

&&


.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

An upper level shortwave trof just to our west will move slowly
northeast across the area today. Rain coverage will be best on
through the morning hours, with scattered to numerous showers
this afternoon and evening. Overall instability looks to be the
best during the afternoon and early evening for some thunder
activity. Overall, we have very little confidence there will be
any severe storm activity (see SPC`s marginal risk area for
today). Maybe some precip loading and gusty downdraft winds
with some of the stronger cells. Sunday through Sunday night
should be quiet with weak high pressure in control.

Next week a consensus of model output has our flow transitioning
from zonal to northwest as an upper low deepens while moving
east along the U.S.-Canadian border. This pattern will support
our continued chance of showers and storms along with slightly
above average temperatures, as a series of upper level impulses
move over our region interacting with a rather warm and unstable
environment. The NBM captures this relatively well, so no real
adjustments needed to its output for our forecast. Thursday
through Friday night may be mostly void of shower and storm
activity per a model consensus. We cannot rule out some diurnal
activity, so slight chance PoPs will remain during mainly the
afternoon hours.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1114 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Cigs will continue to gradually thicken/lower through
the overnight as showers are now increasing in coverage across
the region. The other concern will be MVFR/IFR cigs that will
spread east across all terminals through daybreak. Winds will be
easterly between 5-10 kts.

The most organized showers remain on track to move through
during the morning and early afternoon hours on Saturday before
turning more scattered late day. This is when MVFR and possibly
brief IFR vsby reductions will be possible with heavier
downpours combined with low cigs. Have included VCTS mention
Saturday afternoon and evening as a few rumbles of thunder will
become possible with increasing instability. Winds will veer
more to the SE-S between 10-15 kts with gusts around 20 kts.

Model guidance continues to show a very saturated boundary layer
Saturday evening with winds turning light & variable. There is
uncertainty in how quickly the low stratus cigs will scatter out
as they will likely remain in place across a good portion of the
region; however, KCGI/KPAH may return to VFR towards the end of
the TAF period. If clearing were to occur quicker, fog would
then be a concern, but confidence is very low as the more
favorable conditions look to be just off to the west towards the
end of the TAF period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CN
AVIATION...DW