751
FXUS63 KPAH 011118
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
618 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An unsettled weather pattern is forecast to remain in place
  this weekend and next week, resulting in on and off chances of
  showers and storms.

- Temperatures are expected to remain near to a bit above
  average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

An upper level shortwave trof just to our west will move slowly
northeast across the area today. Rain coverage will be best on
through the morning hours, with scattered to numerous showers
this afternoon and evening. Overall instability looks to be the
best during the afternoon and early evening for some thunder
activity. Overall, we have very little confidence there will be
any severe storm activity (see SPC`s marginal risk area for
today). Maybe some precip loading and gusty downdraft winds
with some of the stronger cells. Sunday through Sunday night
should be quiet with weak high pressure in control.

Next week a consensus of model output has our flow transitioning
from zonal to northwest as an upper low deepens while moving
east along the U.S.-Canadian border. This pattern will support
our continued chance of showers and storms along with slightly
above average temperatures, as a series of upper level impulses
move over our region interacting with a rather warm and unstable
environment. The NBM captures this relatively well, so no real
adjustments needed to its output for our forecast. Thursday
through Friday night may be mostly void of shower and storm
activity per a model consensus. We cannot rule out some diurnal
activity, so slight chance PoPs will remain during mainly the
afternoon hours.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 601 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

A shortwave will pass through the Quad State area today,
bringing rain to each TAF site this moring and scattered showers
and thunderstorms this afternoon. MVFR/IFR ceilings this morning
will gradually improve through thea afternoon; however, ceilings
and visibilities may lower again tonight. Sunday will bring VFR
conditions at each TAF site.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DW
DISCUSSION...CN
AVIATION...KC