250
FXUS61 KPHI 020201
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1001 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through Sunday morning. A weak
system approaches for Sunday night into Monday. High pressure
moves in on Monday night remaining in control through early
Wednesday. An upper level low then will move into the Great
Lakes, keeping things unsettled into next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
No additional forecast changes late this evening...

7PM discussion...Another pleasant day is ending across the
region thanks to an upper- level ridge and surface high pressure
that are pushing through the region. Skies are mostly clear,
save for a bit of cirrus.

For tonight, light winds and low dew points, along with
initially mostly clear skies will lead to ideal radiational
cooling conditions. Temperatures will fall into the 50s with
some low 60s in the heart of the urban corridor. Cirrus clouds
will increase as the next low pressure system approaches.

Clouds will continue to increase daytime Sunday. Southwest
winds will be a bit stronger on Sunday, generally around 10 mph,
with a few gusts up to 15 mph. High temperatures are expected
to again be in the low-mid 80s across most of the region (cooler
in the Poconos and at the shore). This evening, I slowed down
arrival of precip given latest model trends, keeping the entire
day dry CWA-wide...a pleasant end to a pleasant weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A weakening shortwave approaches on Sunday night, rotating
around the backside of an upper level low over the north
Atlantic. This will bring some scattered showers and perhaps a
rumble of thunder but nothing to write home about. Rain chances
are around 30-50% region-wide after midnight. Temperatures will
fall into the low to mid 60s.

12z guidance has generally slowed with this shortwave as the
upper level low gradually pulls away. This may result in some
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms developing in the
afternoon. The best chance to see rain/thunderstorms is within
lower Delmarva (30- 40%), with 15-20% through the rest of the
area. Otherwise, the day will be mainly dry for most, with
temperatures climbing into the low to mid 80s.

We dry out Monday night through Tuesday as high pressure nudges
in from the north. With the high positioned just offshore, an
onshore flow will develop which will result in temperatures in
the low to mid 70s near the coast, with upper 70s/low 80s
elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Long term period will be marked by unsettled weather due to a
closed low moving into the Great Lakes region and meandering
through the weekend. This will result in numerous shortwaves
rounding the base of the closed low and moving towards our
region. The strongest shortwave looks to approach on Thursday,
with an associated cold front moving through sometime late in
the week. Out ahead of the front, widespread showers and
thunderstorms look to develop. Too early to tell if any weather
will be severe or if there are any flooding concerns, but the
Thursday/Thursday night time frame has the highest rain chances
(around 60-70%). Outside of that window, generally expecting
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly in the
afternoon/early evening timeframe of each day. Even with the
front coming through late in the week, unsettled weather likely
continues through the weekend as the upper level low hangs
around near the Great Lakes/Southern Ontario region.

Temperatures will hover near or perhaps a touch below normal
for early June for the long term period with highs near 80 and
overnight lows near 60.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of Tonight...VFR with high-level cirrus clouds increasing.
Generally SW winds around 5 knots or less. High confidence.

Sunday...VFR with increasing mid-high level clouds. Southwest
winds 5-10 knots. High confidence.

Outlook...

Sunday Night...Restrictions possible (40-60%) with scattered
showers and low clouds moving through. Patchy fog may develop as
well.

Monday...Lingering restrictions in the morning likely (50-60%)
though lifting to VFR in the afternoon.

Monday Night through Tuesday Night...VFR. No significant
weather.

Wednesday through Wednesday Night...Primarily VFR though
showers/isolated thunderstorms arriving late in the day could
bring some restrictions.

Thursday...Restrictions likely (70-80%) with widespread showers
and scattered thunderstorms moving through.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines expected thru Sunday with fair weather.
Winds southwest around 10-15 knots with a few gusts up to 20
knots possible, particularly during the day Sunday. Seas 2-3
feet.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Thursday...No marine headlines expected on
the waters. Fair weather outside of Thursday, where showers and
thunderstorms are expected.


Rip Currents...

A LOW risk for the development of rip currents is in place for
Sunday as winds will be southwesterly around 10 MPH with 1 to 2
foot breaking waves and a 5 to 7 second period. While winds
turn more onshore for Monday, wind speeds will be 10 MPH or
less, with continuing 1 to 2 foot waves and short to medium
period. The result will be another day of a LOW risk for the
development of rip currents.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

Rip currents occur often in the vicinities of jetties and
piers. Utilize any guarded beaches if venturing out into the
water.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hoeflich/RCM
NEAR TERM...AKL/RCM
SHORT TERM...Hoeflich/RCM
LONG TERM...Hoeflich
AVIATION...AKL/Hoeflich/RCM
MARINE...AKL/Hoeflich/RCM