Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
032 FXUS65 KPIH 180900 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 300 AM MDT Sat May 18 2024 .SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday night. It will be a dry and sunny day throughout southeast Idaho today. It will again become breezy this afternoon in the Snake River Plain with the strongest winds expected in the Arco desert and will see some locations reaching near 30 mph sustained but think the overwhelming majority of locations will remain just below advisory level. High temperatures today will be near or slightly above normal with upper 60s to lower 70s in lower elevations and upper 50s to lower 60s in the mountains. The next upper level trof and associated surface cold front will move through eastern Idaho on Sunday with much colder temperatures and windier conditions once again. High temperatures will drop significantly from Saturday with mountains highs in the 40s and 50s and valleys in the upper 50s to lower 60s. There will be a slight chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms with the front in the eastern mountains and a very low chance in the central mountains. May be near wind advisory levels in the Snake River Plain with sustained wind speeds near 30 mph and some gusts in the 40s during the day. Sunday night will be cold with lows in the 20s mountains and 30s valleys. GK .LONG TERM...Monday through next Saturday. Unsettled and seasonably cool weather is expected for next week associated with a several H5 troughs working out of WRN Canada and the PacNW into SE Idaho. The EPS and GEFS models remain in good agreement through next weekend outlining at least three separate troughs moving through our region which even with deterministic solutions varying on the depth and placement, will support the trend for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms most days. At this time, the overall QPF/rainfall amounts look to remain light with locally higher totals dependent on convection but favoring for the most part the CNTRL Mountains and ERN/SRN Highlands. While winds will remain light Monday and Tuesday, those look to increase for Wednesday and Thursday associated with 30-40 kt 700 mb winds shifting overhead. This active pattern will favor zonal/NW flow aloft which will in turn keep temperatures below normal for this time of year with highs in the 50s/60s and lows in the 30s/40s. We may also see the potential for FROST ADVISORIES through the long term period at times, especially Sunday night and Thursday night. MacKay && .AVIATION...For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday. Predominant VFR and dry conditions will continue through the weekend under mostly clear skies Saturday with increasing clouds Saturday night into Sunday. Winds will increase diurnally each day to around 10-20 kts on Saturday and 15-25 kts on Sunday with gusts to 25-40 kts. MacKay && .HYDROLOGY...A flood warning continues for the Portneuf river in Pocatello. A flood advisory continues along the Portneuf river at Topaz. Water levels are slowly receding for the Portneuf river due to the snowpack diminishing. Water levels for other rivers, including the Big Wood, Big Lost, Henrys Fork, Teton, and Snake, are continuing to slowly climb due to snowmelt, but all rivers look to remain below action stage with current forecasts. Wyatt && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$