373
FNUS75 KPUB 180037
FWSPUB

Spot Forecast for Gravel Pit Rx...Leadville Lake County Fire Rescue
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
637 PM MDT Fri May 17 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0000 MDT on May 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (719) 948-9429, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...Moderate westerly flow will prevail across the Rockies
through the weekend, with several passing embedded waves helping to
develop showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoons into the
evenings. Late morning and afternoon smoke dispersions look to be in
good to excellent range through the weekend.

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny(34 percent) until noon, then mostly
                    cloudy (57 percent). Slight chance of rain showers
                    and thunderstorms after 1200 until 1700, then
                    chance of rain showers and thunderstorms.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 3 until 1700, then 4.
Max temperature.....59F.
Min humidity........25-30 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West to southwest winds 5-10 mph. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......3500 ft agl until 1000, then 7500 ft agl.
Transport winds.....West around 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 0900, then fair until 1000, then
                    excellent until 1600, then very good.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........10  22  19  17  30  41  56  57  57  58  59  60
Weather cov.....                        SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC
Weather type....                        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                        SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   3   3   3   3   3   4
Temp............33  35  40  47  53  55  57  58  58  59  58  57
RH..............72  72  62  49  36  34  33  33  32  30  33  35
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  NE  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..2   2   2   7   7   7   9   9   9   9   9   9
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  18  18  18  21  21  21  20  20  20
Mix hgt (kft)...2.0 2.0 2.5 4.0 6.5 8.0 8.5 8.0 9.0 9.0 6.5 6.5
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.10  8   10  14  20  21  23  21  22  22  21  20
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
SDspl kt-ft/100016  13  21  47  115 141 173 143 168 176 114 114

.SATURDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy(68 percent) until 0200, then
                    partly cloudy(37 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers and thunderstorms until 2100, then
                    slight chance of rain showers and thunderstorms
                    until 0200.
LAL.................4 until 2100, then 3 until 2400, then 1.
Min temperature.....33F.
Max humidity........74-79 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West to southwest winds 4-9 mph. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......4500 ft agl until 1900, then 2000 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 11 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good until 1900, then poor.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........82  77  72  67  66  64  63  54  45  36  32  29
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
LAL.............4   4   4   3   3   3   2   2   2   1   1   1
Temp............54  50  46  45  43  41  40  40  38  36  35  35
RH..............41  50  58  62  67  70  73  70  76  79  78  77
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..7   7   7   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.16  16  16  10  10  10  8   8   8   9   9   9
Mix hgt (kft)...4.5 2.5 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.17  9   8   6   6   7   7   8   9   10  12  12
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
SDspl kt-ft/100069  21  14  10  9   11  11  12  14  16  18  18

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....60F.
Min humidity........19-24 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........west to southwest winds 5-10 mph until 0900, then
                    west 12-17 mph.
Mixing height.......2000 ft agl until 0700, then 10500 ft agl.
Transport winds.....West around 25 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 0700. Excellent after 0900.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........26  21  17  12  13  15  16  18  20  22  22  21
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............34  38  43  47  50  53  56  57  58  59  58  58
RH..............76  66  56  49  42  36  30  28  25  24  24  25
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   13  13  13  14  15  15  16  17  16
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  25  25  25  29  29  29  28  28  28
Mix hgt (kft)...2.0 4.0 6.0 7.5 8.5 9.5 10  11  11  11  11  11
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.13  17  21  24  26  28  28  28  28  26  26  25
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/100020  59  107 159 201 229 240 249 251 239 243 230

$$
Forecaster...WANKOWSKI
Requested by...Bo Knickman
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414523.0/PUB
.DELDT 05/18/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0