726
FXUS65 KREV 032051
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
151 PM PDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Gusty winds are expected through the afternoon, sustaining choppy
lake waters into the evening. An early season heat episode remains
on track this week as temperatures become well above average through
the weekend. Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms return on
Wednesday and lasts through Sunday for portions of the Sierra and
western Nevada.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Latest surface observations reveal wind gusts of 20-30 mph across
Sierra and western Nevada valleys with Sierra ridge winds (50-60
mph) gradually declining. Wind gusts will remain in the 25-35 mph
range across lower elevations before tapering off in the evening.
A Lake Wind Advisory will remain in effect into the late afternoon
and evening for area lakes north of US-50 due to choppy lake
waters. While there may be a brief period of locally elevated fire
weather conditions in Mineral County, higher humidities and
persistent cloud cover will preclude a greater fire weather
concern this afternoon. Meanwhile, radar is picking up on some
weak returns from NE California into N. Washoe County and Mono
County, which is likely virga due to the presence of a dry,
subcloud layer. These areas will maintain a 10-20% chance of light
showers over the next 2 hours or so.

Tuesday marks the beginning of our much-anticipated (or much-dreaded
if you despise the heat) early season heat spell, courtesy of an
amplifying upper ridge overhead. It`ll be noticeably warmer Tuesday
as daytime highs jump 10-15 degrees from today, with the exception
of the Basin and Range which will experience warming to a lesser
degree. Highs will climb into the upper 70s to 80s for Sierra
communities while lower western Nevada valleys flirt with the 90F
mark. If KRNO reaches 90F on Tuesday, it would be the first of such
instance in 2024! And if it doesn`t on Tuesday, it certainly will
reach this feat on Wednesday as further warming is expected through
Thursday, bringing Sierra and western Nevada highs into the upper
80s and upper 90s, respectively.

To compound the daytime heat, overnight lows from Thursday through
Saturday won`t provide much relief as temperatures only fall into
the mid-60s for populated western Nevada locales including the
Greater Reno-Carson City-Minden area. As a result, a vast majority
of the region will experience a moderate heat risk between Wednesday
through Saturday. Be sure to drink plenty of water, limit
strenuous outdoor activities during peak heating hours, and seek
air conditioned buildings frequently! Additionally, prepare for
area waterways to be running fast and cold under increased
snowmelt. Ensembles suggest that the upper ridge will weaken as a
weak trough develops near the West Coast, which will help
alleviate heat impacts a bit Sunday into early next week.

Daily chances of afternoon showers and thunderstorms return on
Wednesday and linger through the weekend, owing to increased
moisture aloft coupled with intense daytime heating. Best odds of
15-20% favor the eastern Sierra south of the Tahoe Basin, Lassen
into N Washoe County, and portions of the Basin and Range each day.

-Salas

&&

.AVIATION...

Gusty surface winds of 20-30 kts will persist for area terminals
before tapering off between 03-05Z this evening. Lighter surface
winds coupled with weakening FL100 winds will also mitigate any LLWS
concerns and light to moderate turbulence post-sunset.

Attention turns towards a significant warm-up this week as highs
become 15-20 degrees above normal. As such, density altitude
concerns will arise during the Wednesday through Sunday timeframe.
Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms begin Wednesday and lasts
through the weekend with best odds (15-20%) at KMMH Thursday and
Friday per latest blended guidance.

-Salas

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Lake Wind Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon NVZ002.

     Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening NVZ003-004.

CA...Lake Wind Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon CAZ072.

&&

$$