277
FXUS65 KREV 242117
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
217 PM PDT Fri May 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Breezy winds and mild temperatures will persist through Saturday.
A warming trend from Sunday into early next week will bring above
average temperatures and continued dry conditions. There is,
however, a low end chance for isolated thunderstorms in the Sierra
this evening and on Monday afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Key Points:

* Mild temperatures continue into Saturday with an above average
  warming trend starting Sunday to round out the Memorial Day
  Weekend that continues through early next week.

* Saturday will see enhanced breezes with wind gusts generally 25-35
  mph. Lighter afternoon breezes return Sunday and again for
  Memorial Day with typical afternoon breezes continuing into next
  week.

* Continued dry conditions for Saturday and Sunday with a low-end
  return of thunderstorm chances (10-20%) for Monday.

Tonight through Sunday:  A weak short wave trough that drops into
the Great Basin region will drag over the Sierra and western Nevada,
and bring another day of enhanced afternoon breezes on Saturday. As
winds mix down into lower western NV valleys later Saturday morning
into the afternoon,  gusts will peak in the 25-35 mph range before
gradually tapering off going into the evening hours. Area lakes
could see a return of choppy surface conditions during the afternoon
hours with aviation interests experiencing another period of light
to moderate turbulence until winds dissipate later Saturday night.
Sunday will see more subdued winds with gusts rarely topping 20 mph.

Overnight into Saturday AM, the drier airmass and northwest upper
flow in the wake of the outgoing trough will allow for a few chilly
nights for colder valleys, especially in the Sierra where readings
will hover up and down near freezing mark. Daytime temperatures on
Saturday will stay mostly average with little deviation with daytime
highs for western valleys rising in the low to mid 70s with Sierra
locations to include Mono County pushing upward into the upper 50s
to low 60s.  By Sunday higher pressure begins to take hold of the
region, and initiates a warming trend that looks top drive daytime
highs a few degrees above average for many places across the
Sierra and western NV. Although overnight lows will not recover
much Sunday morning for the colder valleys, daytime highs for
western NV valleys will push into the low 80s with most Sierra
valleys still able to warm into the high 60s to low 70s.

Memorial Day onward: It is fitting that a warming trend with
plenty of sunshine starts in earnest on this day of reflection
for our nation`s heroes. An upper ridge axis will build and
amplify over the western US and extend northward into western
Canada. As higher pressure gain a stronger foothold across the
region, temperatures will start an upward march with daytime highs
returning to around 10 degrees above normal by Mon-Tue. The
modest moisture across higher elevation areas, lighter winds, and
increased surface heating should be sufficient to increase
instability and bring a 10-20% chance for isolated storms over the
Sierra Monday afternoon. Dont be surprised that these conditions
bring a repeat performance Tuesday afternoon as well. Storm
coverage may be a bit limited for any storms that form Tuesday as
simulations project an increasing southwest upper flow and more
stable conditions ahead of another incoming cold front.

By mid-week with another cold front looking to affect the region,
temperature variability from blended guidance simulations is
providing that level of uncertainty that calls out how long the
expected warming trend will last. Although ensemble cluster
guidance is placing upper ridging across the western US that
strengthens the notion that decent warming continues through next
week, along with continued dry conditions, broad troughing still
wants to edge into the region through the backdoor. Ensemble
simulations do show the region staying mostly dry with only the
low-end chance for more afternoon showers over the Sierra. But
this maybe offset with cool periods with periods of enhanced
afternoon breezes. Believe me, this forecast reverberates the
idea that the hotter summer heat desires to stay on vacation just
a little longer. That`s OK with me! -Amanda

&&

.AVIATION...

* 30-hr operating period (00Z Sat-06Z Sun): Look for isolated
  showers and thunderstorms dissipating about an hour after sunset.
  Any storms at or near an terminals could still have erratic wind
  gusts to 30-35kts. Impacts will be short-lived, and last less than
  30 min. The breezy W-NW winds that have gusts 20-25 kts into the
  evening may produce light mechanical turbulence till 03Z. VFR
  conditions with light winds will prevail overnight into Sat AM.
  After 18-20Z, look for breezy W-NW winds returning with gusts to
  20-30kts that diminish gradually after sunset.

* Rest of the Memorial Day Weekend: Otherwise, generally dry and
  stable the rest of the weekend with lighter daytime breezes with
  gusts to 15kts. There is still a low-end 10-15% chance for
  isolated showers and  thunderstorms Monday PM mostly along the
  Sierra crest. -Amanda

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$