998
FXUS61 KRLX 300625
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
225 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry today through Saturday courtesy of high pressure, then
disturbances bring showers and storms late Saturday night into
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 215 AM Thursday...

Isolated showers, mainly lingering over the northeast mountains,
should fade early this morning. Valley fog has started to
develop in the lowlands and should expend in coverage before
dawn, while stratus persists along the mountains. Both fog and
stratus are then expected to erode after sunrise.

While an upper trough remains stationed overhead today, dry air will
be introduced to the lower levels as high pressure expands into the
Middle Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians. The passage of another
shortwave could bring a few clouds during the latter half of the
day, though high pressure is expected to maintain control at the
surface and supply dry, tranquil conditions into the night.

Temperatures should remain on the cooler side of normal, with
daytime highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s across the lowlands and
mid 50s to upper 60s in the mountains. Lows for tonight are expected
to turn chilly and are likely to range from low to mid 40s in the
lowlands to mid 30s to low 40s along the mountains. Patchy frost
could even form across portions of the northeast mountains early
Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 221 AM Thursday...

Dry and quiet conditions expected Friday and Saturday, courtesy of a
broad surface high pressure extending from the southern Great Lakes,
south into the OH Valley and West Virginia. Temperatures will feel 5
degrees cooler than normal on Friday and Friday night under weak
northerly flow. However, boundary layer flow veers from the
southwest by Saturday morning, ahead of an approaching upper level
trough. This will provide a warming trend into the weekend. A clean
transient upper level ridge will support stable conditions Saturday.
Therefore, expect a warm up Saturday afternoon under sunny skies
with highs reaching the mid 80s across the lowlands, ranging into
the upper 60s higher elevations.

Boundary layer southwest flow increases Saturday night and Sunday,
bringing descent moist and warm advection to the area, while the
upper ridge moves east, allowing a sharp trough to cross the area
during the same time. The upper level support and available moisture
could allow for chances of showers Saturday night, increasing in
coverage and intensity Sunday.  Associated upper level forcing will
combine with PWATs increasing to 1.5 inches to sustain showers and
few thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening.

Some guidance suggests a shortwave within the upper trough will push
a cold front Sunday, pushing convection east of the mountains by
Sunday night. However, other guidance points at the stalling cold
front north of the area by Monday. Accepted NBM temperatures with a
warming trend, Sunday to Monday.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 221 AM Thursday...

After Sunday, models show different solutions at the surface
and at the upper levels, some stalling the front north of the
area, while others push a cold front east. Some bring upper
level shortwave passing by. Due to uncertainty of model
solutions, will maintain chance PoPs during the afternoon and
evening Monday through the rest of the period. Accepted NBM
temperatures with a warming trend, reaching the mid to upper 80s
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 150 AM Thursday...

Isolated showers in the northeast mountains should fade early in
the TAF period, while low stratus is expected to linger through
the early morning hours. Meanwhile, valley fog has begun to
develop to the west of the mountains and is expected to expand
in coverage before daybreak. Sub-VFR ceilings will occur within
stratus, while fog is likely to impair both ceilings and
visibility. A general improvement to VFR should occur once fog
and stratus erode later this morning, then high pressure brings
VFR conditions for the rest of the TAF period.

Calm to light winds persist through the early morning, then
5-12kt northwesterly flow is expected through the day.
Occasional gusts into the teens could also be possible along the
mountains during the afternoon. After 00Z, winds become calm to
light once again.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent, timing, and intensity of fog and
low stratus tonight may vary from the forecast.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         THU 05/30/24
UTC 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
EDT 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR conditions are possible in river valley fog Friday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JLB
NEAR TERM...JLB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JLB