939
FXUS63 KSGF 301724
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1224 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance (30-50%) for showers and thunderstorms late this
  afternoon and evening, mainly along and west of I-49. A few
  strong storms capable of producing gusty winds, small hail,
  and heavy rainfall are possible.

- Much better chance for widespread rain (70-90%) arrives
  Friday into Saturday. There is a Slight (2 of 4 risk) of
  flooding.

- Warm and muggy summer-like pattern Sunday into midweek with
  daily chances (30-60%) for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Water vapor imagery depicts an upper-level trough over the
northeastern U.S. and another centered over the Alberta
province, with a ridge axis shifting east over Missouri this
morning. Thunderstorms have already begun firing across the High
Plains in response to passing shortwave energy and a favorable
environment.

Much of our area will remain dry today with the ridge overhead.
However, several CAMs suggest the storms out west may maintain
themselves long enough to impact our southeast Kansas and far
western Missouri counties late this afternoon and evening. If
these storms can develop more robust cold pools, RAP data
suggest anywhere from 1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE will be available
to tap into, though instability rapidly decreases to the east.
Therefore, a few stronger storms with gusty winds, small hail,
and heavy rain will be possible generally along and west of the
I-49 corridor in the 5-10 PM timeframe. Ultimately, how these
storms evolve across the Plains will influence the extent of
thunderstorm potential in our area, which will continue to be
assessed throughout the day today.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Flood Potential Friday into early Saturday:
A shortwave disturbance is forecast to develop across southern
Kansas into Oklahoma Thursday night into early Friday morning.
The extended reaches of the CAMs depict an MCV (or several)
forming somewhere in the Oklahoma/Arkansas/Missouri region and
slowly lifting northeast throughout the day Friday. Southerly
850 mb flow will increase moisture return into the area, with
forecast PWATs progged in the 1.5-1.7 inch range. Coincident
weak upper-level flow will result in a fairly slow system
progression and an extended period of rainfall. Additionally,
MCVs are often notorious for being flood producers, particularly
if you can get persistent embedded convection with them.

Latest NBM 4.2 Rainfall Total Probabilities Friday-Saturday:
Prob >0.5 inch: 60-90%
Prob >1 inch: 30-75%
Prob >2 inch:10-40%

Summer-like Pattern Sunday through Midweek:
LREF clusters depict general agreement in a quasi-zonal upper-
level flow pattern maintaining itself early next week before
developing more high-amplitude ridging by week`s end. During
this period, southerly 850 mb flow looks to continue to pump
warm, moist air into the region. With daily forecast highs in
the mid 80s and dew points near 70, it will feel quite muggy.
Resultantly, any subtle shortwave disturbances that move
overhead will pose the risk for thunderstorm development that is
pulse-like in nature. Thus, we maintain low to medium shower
and thunderstorm chances (30-60%) each day through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Multiple upper level disturbances will bring lowering ceilings
and increasing rain potential from this evening into Friday.
Rain chances and increasing MVFR potential will start at Joplin
around 00Z as showers and a few thunderstorms push out of
eastern Kansas.

More in the way of widespread rainfall will then shift from west
to east across southern Missouri from late tonight into Friday
morning. Widespread MVFR ceilings will transition to IFR
throughout the morning. Pockets of heavier rainfall will also
result in MVFR and brief IFR visibilities. A few thunderstorms
are also expected Friday morning in the vicinity of Joplin.

Surface winds throughout the TAF period will generally remain
out of the southeast at 6-12 knots. There will be gusts around
20 knots until sunset at Joplin and Springfield.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Didio
LONG TERM...Didio
AVIATION...Schaumann