Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
127 FGUS74 KSHV 161648 ESFSHV 171048- Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1148 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 ...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) long range probabilistic outlook for the Sabine River basin of East Texas... In the table below...the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels during the next 90 days. For example...the Sabine River near Mineola Texas flood stage is 14 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the Sabine River will rise above 17.1 feet during the next 90 days. Chance of exceeding stages at specific locations valid for May 15, 2024 through August 13, 2024 Location FS 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% ------------------ -- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Lake Fork Creek Quitman 4S 16 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 16.0 16.3 16.5 17.9 19.7 Sabine River Mineola 4S 14 17.1 17.1 17.1 17.1 17.1 17.1 17.2 18.2 19.3 Gladewater 3WSW 26 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 30.7 32.8 35.8 Longview 25 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 28.0 33.2 Beckville 8NE 26 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.9 27.2 29.0 Logansport 28 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 29.6 Big Sandy Creek Big Sandy 4NE 17 10.0 10.0 10.0 11.4 11.8 12.1 12.4 13.0 15.2 Rabbit Creek Kilgore 10 5.3 5.3 5.3 6.8 8.6 11.5 12.3 12.6 13.8 Location 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% ----------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- Lk Cherokee 280.5 280.5 280.5 280.5 280.5 280.5 280.5 280.6 281.2 Lk Martin 306.1 306.1 306.1 306.1 306.1 306.2 306.3 306.5 307.1 Lk Murvaul 265.8 265.8 265.8 265.8 265.9 266.1 266.2 266.3 267.1 This long range probabilistic outlook uses probabilities computed using multiple scenarios from 60 years of historical climatological and stream flow data. These probabilities also account for the current river flows and soil moisture conditions. By providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers...the level of risk associated with long range planning decisions can be determined. Additional supportive data and explanations are available on the internet at this URL: http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=shv (internet address URL is all lower case). Long range probabilistic outlooks are issued during the third Thursday of every month. $$ 88