110
FXUS64 KSJT 270941
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
441 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 101 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Drier west to northwest air was moving in behind a surface
trough/Pacific front located from Junction to Brady to Brownwood
at noon, where dew points were in the lower 70s. A few cumulus
were developing in this area, but it should remain capped as the
drier air moves in.

The drier air will be only temporary, however, as southeasterly
winds return, bringing dew points back into the 60s to near 70s
from Junction to Brownwood in the morning Monday and into the
eastern Big Country east of an Abilene to Throckmorton line in the
afternoon. Added a slight chance of thunderstorms from Junction to
Menard to Brownwood in the afternoon, where the NAM NEST and HRR
models hint at afternoon convection. A few storms may develop
later in the evening along east of a Junction to Abilene to
Haskell line, where SPC has a marginal risk of severe
thunderstorms.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 432 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

...Unsettled weather expected this week...

Rain chances will increase across the area beginning Tuesday and
persisting through the rest of the week. For Tuesday, the threat
for severe storms will increase across much of the area. A stalled
frontal boundary is expected to be over the Big Country on
Tuesday, with a dryline extending south of the front across West
Texas. Despite weak mid level riding over the area, models
indicate several disturbances propagating through the flow aloft
by late afternoon/early evening. Strong to extreme instability
will be in place across the area by late afternoon, with CAPE`s
3000 to 4000+ J/kg per latest model data.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front and dryline
Tuesday afternoon, with renewed convection possible over the area
into the evening hours. Currently, there is a slight risk for
severe storms for much of the area Tuesday afternoon/evening, with
large to very large hail and damaging winds the main severe
hazards, although and isolated tornado is also possible. Will
maintain medium to low end high POP`s across the area Tuesday
into Tuesday night. In additional to the severe threat, PW values
will be high (1.5 to 2.0 inches), which will contribute to
torrential downpours and a threat for localized flooding.

The overall pattern changes little Wednesday through the end of
the week, with a medium chance for showers and thunderstorms
persisting through the period. While at least some threat for
severe storms may exist just about each day, the threat for
additional heavy rainfall and flooding may be more of a concern,
as a very moist airmass persists across the area. Precipitation
chances will decrease by the weekend, but isolated to widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms will still be possible
Saturday and Sunday, so will maintain low POPs across the area.
As for temperatures, we finally get a break from the oppressive
heat this week, with daytime highs mainly in the mid/upper 80s to
lower 90s from Wednesday through the weekend, although highs may
not get out of the 70s across the Big Country on Wednesday.
Overnight lows will predominantly be in the 60s through the
extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

VFR conditions are expected to continue the next 24 hours.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop this afternoon near
the KBBD and KJCT terminals, but confidence was too low to
include a mention in this TAF package.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene    100  71  90  65 /   0  20  60  60
San Angelo 104  73  96  67 /   0  10  60  50
Junction   105  71  98  69 /  20  20  40  50
Brownwood   97  70  89  67 /  20  20  50  60
Sweetwater 101  71  93  66 /   0  10  70  50
Ozona      102  73  95  67 /   0  10  50  40
Brady       99  70  92  67 /  20  20  50  60

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...42