Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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681 FXUS64 KSJT 261802 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 102 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 101 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Drier west to northwest air was moving in behind a surface trough/Pacific front located from Junction to Brady to Brownwood at noon, where dew points were in the lower 70s. A few cumulus were developing in this area, but it should remain capped as the drier air moves in. The drier air will be only temporary, however, as southeasterly winds return, bringing dew points back into the 60s to near 70s from Junction to Brownwood in the morning Monday and into the eastern Big Country east of an Abilene to Throckmorton line in the afternoon. Added a slight chance of thunderstorms from Junction to Menard to Brownwood in the afternoon, where the NAM NEST and HRR models hint at afternoon convection. A few storms may develop later in the evening along east of a Junction to Abilene to Haskell line, where SPC has a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 354 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 ....Unsettled Pattern to Return Next Week... Hot weather will continue for Memorial Day as an upper-level ridge persists over northern Mexico. Numerical guidance suggests yet another day of triple-digit heat with low overall rain chances. Starting Tuesday, the pattern looks to become unsettled again as an upper-level trough becomes established over the eastern US and puts the southern Plains into northwest flow. Models show multiple shortwave impulses aloft riding over the north edge of the weakening ridge through Friday. Warm temperatures in the low to mid 90s will be expected each afternoon with plenty of Gulf moisture in place due to southeast surface flow. A cold front should also dip into west central Texas late Monday night into Tuesday and stall through Wednesday. Thunderstorms should develop along both the front and the dryline late Tuesday with lingering convection possible Wednesday. The front should lift back northward on Thursday and provide even more chances for showers and thunderstorms through Friday. Conditions through the entire week are likely to be warm and muggy. However, local conditions may be impacted at times by cloud cover && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Dry west to northwest winds will bring VFR conditions to the region and tonight, but MVFR haze possible at KJCT towards 12Z Monday as moisture and haze from South Texas begins to return. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 66 99 70 90 / 0 0 20 60 San Angelo 63 103 71 96 / 0 0 10 50 Junction 68 106 70 98 / 0 20 20 30 Brownwood 65 97 70 89 / 0 20 20 50 Sweetwater 66 100 72 92 / 0 0 10 70 Ozona 66 103 73 95 / 0 0 10 40 Brady 65 98 70 91 / 0 20 20 50 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....SK AVIATION...04