614
FXUS64 KSJT 300504
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1204 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

This afternoon, a weak outflow boundary was moving southwestward
through west central Texas. Temperatures were in the mid to upper
80s with dewpoints in the 60s. Although CAPE values are around 3000
J/kg this afternoon, a stronger ridge is in place today than
yesterday which should be a tougher cap for potential convection to
fight through. As a result, instability this afternoon and evening
looks rather conditional and any showers or storms should be fairly
short lived.

Later this evening, mainly after sunset, a weak wave should approach
the Trans-Pecos area where CAPE values are around 5000 J/kg. Storms
look to develop over the Davis Mountains, where the best convergence
is located, and move northeastward toward Crockett County.  Any
storms that develop have chances for large hail and damaging winds
due to the better mid-level lapse rates in this area.

Thunderstorm chances look to ramp up again tomorrow as southerly
surface flow increases and brings higher dewpoints into west central
Texas. Models show CAPE values in the 3000-5000 J/kg range.  An
upper-level wave moving through the central Plains could result in
some scattered thunderstorms developing early tomorrow morning
across the Big Country, so PoPs were confined to this location.
Higher chances, however, exist late in the afternoon to early
evening just after peak heating for areas further south.  Storms
should fire along the dryline, which models show will be located
from the Panhandle southward through the Permian Basin. Another
upper-level impulse moving into the Panhandle should provide plenty
of support for development as they push eastward into our county
warning area in the evening. Given the location of the wave, areas
most likely to be impacted by storms will be from the Concho Valley
northward.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

For Thursday night, there will be boundaries, stationary
front/outflow boundary just northeast of the area and a dryline over
the Permain Basin and Trans Pecos, for thunderstorms to fire off
during the late afternoon hours. The Hi-Res models indicate isolated
probably supercells firing along the dryline to our west and a few
storms developing just to our north and moving into our area, and
merging into a line of strong/severe storms mainly across the
northern half of the area, moving southeast possibly making it to
the I-10 corridor by late evening. The combination of strong/extreme
instability and good vertical wind shear will result in some severe
storms. The main hazards will large to very large hail, damaging
winds and an isolated tornado possible. Also, localized flooding is
possible due to high PW values producing locally heavy rainfall.

For Friday, an unsettled pattern will continue with weak upper level
support, a cold front along the I-10 corridor and abundant moisture.
Expect scattered thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon and
evening across the eastern half of the area. A few storms may be
severe due to strong instability and some wind shear. The main
hazards will be large hail, damaging winds and localized flooding.
For this weekend, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible
mainly across the northern and eastern areas. Can not rule out and
isolated strong/severe storm mainly during the late afternoon and
evening. The early part of next week looks mainly dry and warmer as
an upper level high pressure ridge builds into the area. Highs will
be in the 90s to around 102.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Veil of high clouds continues across West Central Texas terminals
early this morning, with some patchy MVFR cigs peeking out
occasionally. This will largely continue through sunrise, with
mainly VFR conditions at many sites but some some brief MVFR cigs
as well. We continue to monitor the 1 storm across the eastern
Permian Basin as well as Eastern New Mexico but radar trends
suggest neither of these is likely to be a problem through 12Z at
least. Latest CAMs do show much more widespread convection
possible this afternoon and will insert a PROB30 into all of the
sites to account for this possibility for now. Latest forecasts
should be able to provide some more fine tuned timing later.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     83  67  85  67 /  30  20  40  50
San Angelo  92  69  92  70 /  20  20  30  30
Junction    94  72  94  72 /  20  20  20  30
Brownwood   82  69  84  68 /  30  10  20  50
Sweetwater  83  67  87  67 /  20  20  40  40
Ozona       92  70  91  70 /  20  30  20  20
Brady       87  70  87  70 /  20  20  20  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...07