Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
235 FXUS65 KSLC 270944 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 344 AM MDT Mon May 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS...High pressure will continue to work its way into the area through the first half of the week. A substantial warming and drying trend will accompany this high, pushing temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal by Tuesday. A mostly dry cold front will push through the region late Wednesday through Thursday. && .SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Wednesday)...Early Memorial Day morning, a mid-level ridge axis was located just upstream of Utah and SW Wyoming. Model consensus places the ridge axis overhead this afternoon before it nudges off to the east on Tuesday. The ridge will bring a warming trend to the region. A modest influx of mid-level moisture will support an isolated shower or thunderstorm this afternoon/early evening, mainly over high terrain of central Utah. On Tuesday, continued mid-level moisture advection will team up with increasing large-scale ascent in advance of an area of low pressure and associated cold front that will move into Washington State by Tuesday night. In response, an uptick in the coverage of shower/thunderstorm activity is expected across northern and central Utah as well as SW Wyoming. While the bulk of the convective activity will be tied to terrain, 25-35kt of deep-layer shear and 250-750J/kg of SBCAPE could be enough to allow for some semblance of shear/cold pool balance, which may allow some convective activity to survive once it comes off of terrain. Main hazards with this activity will be isolated lightning and gusty outflow winds. Probabilities for gusty winds are maximized from NE Utah to SW Wyoming, where the most likely range of convectively- induced gusts lives in the 35-45 mph range. Tuesday will be the warmest day of the year thus far, with high temperatures surging into the mid/upper 90s across Lower Washington County and mid/upper 80s across the Wasatch Front, with a 1 in 3 chance of reaching 90F at SLC. Most other valley locations will also see highs in the 80s, with the exception of eastern valleys where highs will make it into the 90s. .LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Wednesday)...Mid week, we`ll watch for influence from a upper level trough and its associated cold front across the Intermountain West as it grazes across northern Utah and southwest Wyoming. As the forecast stands this morning, modest impacts from this system are forecast by way of rain and risk for thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon, followed by cooler temperatures for Thursday. All of this is forecast north of about Delta. We`ll continue to watch this front this week to see just how it may change. Quite a mild weather pattern is forecast for our region for the latter half of the week, allowing for seasonal temperatures and dry conditions. The weekends forecast looks to continue in this trend and in fact only further increases temperatures as southwest flow takes over. We are looking at widespread upper 80 degree temperatures by Sunday with 90s in St. George and in southeast Utah. && .AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions expected through the period. Light southeast winds are forecast to shift northwest later this morning with a return back out of the southeast this evening. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions are forecast throughout the period with light winds anticipated for most terminals. A slight breeze is forecast this afternoon in southwest Wyoming from the west. && .FIRE WEATHER...High pressure will build across the area through Tuesday, bringing a considerable warming and drying trend, with poor overnight recovery across southern Utah. A slight increase in midlevel moisture will favor isolated shower and thunderstorm development over high terrain areas Monday and Tuesday afternoon. A cold front will move across northern Utah on Wednesday, bringing a few showers and thunderstorms across the north, along with breezy conditions for wind-prone areas in a westerly wind regime. Behind the front, temperatures will cool 10 degrees or so for Thursday across the north, with little change across southern Utah. High pressure appears set to return next weekend, bringing a renewed warming and drying trend across the north, with a continuation of warm and dry weather for southern Utah. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ ADeSmet/NDeSmet For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity