Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
312 FXUS62 KTBW 220840 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 440 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 430 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024 Surface ridging extends down the E Seaboard into the state this morning, while aloft the state sits under northerly flow between ridging across the Gulf and a trough over the W Atlantic. The trough fills over the next few days with a residual weakness lingering, while the Gulf ridging gradually builds over the peninsula through late week resulting in suppressed rain chances over most of the area save for interior S and SWFL locations that may see an isolated afternoon to evening shower or storm. A few shortwaves moving across the E U.S. over the weekend erode the northern extent of the ridging forcing the ridge axis into the S Gulf early next week as broad troughing sets up over the E U.S. during the first half of the week. The surface ridge gradually shifts E into the Atlantic over the weekend into next week which, coupled with the troughing aloft, will favor deep layer W-SW flow setting up over the area next week supporting an increase in moisture over the state along with higher rain chances, highest toward the interior. Afternoon highs today in the lower to mid 90s except for the upper 80s to around 90 along the immediate coast, warming into the mid 90s away from the coast with pockets of upper 90s possible late week through the weekend, with coastal areas hovering near 90. Slight moderating trend likely into mid week next week as moisture and rain chances increase over the area. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 120 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024 VFR expected through the period with high pressure ridging into the area supporting E-SE winds overnight through morning turning onshore and increasing during the afternoon with the sea breeze before diminishing during the evening and returning to E-SE overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 430 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024 High pressure ridging into the region will lead to E-SE winds over the next couple days, turning onshore with the sea breeze each afternoon. Ridging gradually shifts east late week into the weekend with with winds becoming S on Friday then SW-W over the weekend into next week. Mainly rain free conditions expected over the northern and central waters through the weekend with slight chances over the southern waters, before rain chances expand across all of the waters next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 430 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024 High pressure will hold over the region into the weekend with a chance of an afternoon and evening shower or thunderstorm, with highest rain chances over the southern interior and southwest Florida. Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels with winds 15 mph or less. Potential for spotty areas of higher afternoon dispersions over inland areas and southwest Florida increases into the weekend and next week, otherwise no concerns expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 92 76 92 77 / 10 10 10 0 FMY 94 74 94 76 / 20 20 20 10 GIF 92 71 94 73 / 10 10 10 0 SRQ 93 74 92 76 / 10 10 10 0 BKV 93 68 94 69 / 10 0 10 0 SPG 91 78 91 79 / 10 10 10 0 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 2 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 6 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Hurt DECISION SUPPORT/CLIMATE...Hubbard