834
FXUS62 KTBW 011334
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
934 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 933 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Slightly drier air today will keep shower chances low today and
keep mostly sunny skies. However a strong easterly breeze will
help to keep things a few degrees cooler today compared to the
last few days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper ridging that has been over the region is weakening as an
upper shortwave moves through the MS River Valley today then moves
over the FL Peninsula Sunday before moving into the W Atlantic
early next week.

At the surface, high pressure centered over the Mid Atlantic
states this morning will move into the W Atlantic by Sunday but
the moderately tight pressure gradient will keep the occasionally
gusty conditions in place with hot and mainly dry conditions
today. With upper ridging and subsidence today expect fairly low
rain chances limited to SW FL coastal areas with late afternoon
seabreeze pinned to the coast. Rain chances increase areawide
Sunday with additional upper energy associated with the upper
trough moving overhead.

Next week moisture is expected to increase as Bermuda high
pressure weakens and remains over the area with daytime heating
and scattered seabreeze convection daily. Increased humidity will
also bring higher heat index values to the area but this is normal
for early June in FL.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 755 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period with mainly easterly
winds that will gust up to 15 to 20 knots this afternoon.
Conditions will be drier today so kept thunderstorms out of the
TAFs however a shower or two can not be ruled out in Southwest
Florida Terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will remain north of the area through the weekend
with occasionally gusty easterly winds and elevated seas especially
during the evening into overnight easterly surges with exercise
caution headlines. High pressure weakens next week with winds and
seas subsiding and the afternoon seabreeze returning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will remain north of the area through the weekend
with occasionally gusty easterly winds, high dispersion values, hot
temperatures and marginally low afternoon RH values. Isolated to
scattered afternoon into evening showers and thunderstorm will be
possible daily as well. Winds lighten early next week with the
afternoon seabreeze returning as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  74  93  75 /  20  20  50  20
FMY  94  72  94  73 /  20  20  80  40
GIF  91  70  93  72 /  10  10  60  10
SRQ  93  71  95  74 /  20  20  50  30
BKV  92  68  94  67 /  10  10  50  20
SPG  91  77  92  78 /  20  20  50  30

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 2
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 2

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...ADavis
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...ADavis