Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Ohio RFC
Issued by NWS Ohio RFC
473 FGUS61 KTIR 301654 ESGTIR WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER WILMINGTON OH 1209 PM EDT Thursday May 30 2024 THE FOLLOWING IS THE 30-DAY WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE .WATER RESOURCES STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK... Streamflow forecasts for the month of June are normal throughout the Ohio RIver forecast basin. Although it is late in the spring, normal springtime flows can still indicate some elevated streamflows. This could include some isolated flooding, especially in the southern and western river basins of the Ohio River Valley. ..................................................................... .HYDROLOGIC FLOOD AND DROUGHT POTENTIAL... Flood potential is near normal for the month of June. Drought is not a threat at this time. ..................................................................... .PAST 30 DAY HYDROLOGICAL AND METEOROLOGICAL REVIEW... RAINFALL DEPARTURES... Rainfall over the past 30 days was near normal for most of the Ohio River Valley, but well above normal in the southwestern portions of the region, namely Kentucky, northern Tennessee, and far southern Illinois. A large part of this area, especially the Cumberland and Green River basins, received 200-300% of normal rainfall. Some other pockets of the Ohio Valley also received slightly above normal rainfall, specifically western Pennsylvania, southern/eastern Ohio, northern West Virginia, and central Indiana. https://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/images/dynamic/latest30day.jpeg SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS... With the agricultural growing season taking off, most of the Ohio Valley has normal to slightly below normal soil moisture to begin the month of June. The only departure from this is in Kentucky, Tennessee, and western Pennsylvania where the soil moisture is slightly above normal due to the heavy rain that has fallen in these areas over the past month. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/soilmst/w.shtml STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS... Streamflows during May were near normal for most of the Ohio Valley, but generally below normal in the mountains of West Virginia and Virginia, and above normal in Kentucky, Tennessee, and far southern Illinois. https://waterdata.usgs.gov/index.php?id=real ..................................................................... .ATMOSPHERIC TELECONNECTION AND OSCILLATION FORECASTS FOR THE NEXT MONTH... TELECONNECTION/OSCILLATION PATTERN ARCTIC OSCILLATION Neutral/Negative = near normal to above normal rainfall NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION Negative = above normal rainfall PACIFIC/NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION Neutral = not a significant indicator ENSO - EL NINO/LA NINA OSCILLATION Weakening El Nino/Transitioning to ENSO-Neutral = not a significant indicator https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov ..................................................................... .TECHNICAL DISCUSSION... The meteorological outlook favors near to slightly above active rainfall in the Ohio River Valley for the month of June. The dominant weather pattern appears to be a consistent pattern of progressive low pressure systems and associated rainfall with a couple days of ridging and dry weather in between. The best chance for above normal precipitation would be in the southern Ohio Valley. With the current position of the jet stream, the basins along and south of the Ohio River are more susceptible to stationary boundaries stalling and bringing locally higher rainfall totals. This could allow for localized areas with above normal rainfall in June. By the end of June, Pacific sea surface temperatures should be neutral. However, there is about a 50% chance of La Nina conditions developing in the Pacific in the July-September timeframe. Development of La Nina should favor drier than normal conditions for the Ohio Valley through the summer and into the fall. ....................................................................... VISIT OUR WATER RESOURCES WEBSITE AT http://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/WRO IN ADDITION TO A 30-DAY STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK...YOU CAN ALSO OBTAIN A 60- AND 90-DAY OUTLOOK AT THE WEBSITE $$ Cornelissen