Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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681 FXUS63 KTOP 012333 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 633 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Storm/rain chances move in later this evening and overnight. - Active pattern continues Sunday and through Wednesday with rain/storm chances daily. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 242 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 - Periodic thunderstorm chances through Tuesday night - Overall drier and mild period Wednesday into next weekend Recent water vapor imagery showing modest zonal flow over the bulk of the region. Weak surface high pressure over western Missouri has kept wind fields light with lingering shallow cumulus. Gusty south winds returned to western Kansas downstream of a weak upper wave with a cluster of early-day thunderstorms just east of COS. Thunderstorm-conducive parameters will generally increase through Tuesday afternoon. Diurnal convection over the High Plains should become more robust today and more so Sunday afternoon as zonal flow persists and moisture becomes richer. A modest low-level jet and MUCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg could be enough to sustain convection this far west tonight into early Sunday, but CAMs are showing considerable differences between each other and run-to-run. MUCAPE nears 2000 J/kg Sunday night with a slightly stronger low-level jet for better thunderstorm chances Sunday night into Monday morning. Tonight`s activity appears to be more of a hail concern while various CAMs show a more intense squall line for a wind and hail threat Sunday night. Both Sunday and Monday daytime periods bring at least small thunderstorm chances with some potential for outflow boundaries to linger and provide a convective focus. A stronger upper wave moves east across the Dakotas Tuesday, dragging a cold front through Kansas. This should provide the best thunderstorm chances of this forecast with considerable instability thanks to dewpoints around 70F. Modest northwest upper flow becomes the rule Tuesday night into next weekend with a cooler and drier airmass in place. There will be some potential for warm-air advection-supported precipitation by Friday night as moisture works back north into the High Plains. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 626 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 The main update in the 00Z TAF period was to introduce VCTS for a few hours at each site late tonight and early Sunday morning. Confidence in storms impacting airports is still not overly high given continued model variability, but will monitor trends as storms approach from western KS tonight. Surface winds then increase midday Sunday with gusts between 20 and 25 kts. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Poage AVIATION...Teefey